tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post7824793898511303215..comments2024-03-12T02:43:06.173-05:00Comments on The Market Speculator: Today's ThoughtsThe Market Speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15108816250543774083noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-36402197272599702722008-04-17T14:27:00.000-05:002008-04-17T14:27:00.000-05:00One of the model portfolios that I track is long g...One of the model portfolios that I track is long gold. I get fairly specific in this post:<BR/><BR/>http://billrempel.com/2008/04/06/rotational-portfolio-is-overweight-commodities/<BR/><BR/>That portfolio has been long GLD since Dec 2007 and $78.13.<BR/><BR/>I personally trade one of the four models, and announce all trades before I take them. I am currently trading the Aggressive model for U.Snodoodahshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05324705536306995431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-28676412184432017562008-04-17T13:23:00.000-05:002008-04-17T13:23:00.000-05:00Bill,What is it that has you bullish gold? Specif...Bill,<BR/>What is it that has you bullish gold? Specifics not necessary, but what does your model clue you in on?The Market Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15108816250543774083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-4212788622238590252008-04-17T13:17:00.000-05:002008-04-17T13:17:00.000-05:00Bill,My bad with regards to GLD vs GDX. However, ...Bill,<BR/>My bad with regards to GLD vs GDX. <BR/><BR/>However, with regard to volume, I have not seen many instances in my trading where GLD's volume pattern varied much from stocks like GOLD, GG or BVN. If GLD is misleading, I do also watch a basket of gold related stocks that would clue me in. I'm going to cue your comments and keep watch of GLD volume versus gold related stocks over the The Market Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15108816250543774083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-84954958493884067202008-04-17T12:57:00.000-05:002008-04-17T12:57:00.000-05:00I believe you are SIGNIFICANTLY misunderstanding t...I believe you are SIGNIFICANTLY misunderstanding the situation, as well as misunderstanding my statement.<BR/><BR/>GLD attempts to track the spot price of gold. The relationship to miners and mining stocks is secondary and economic. (GDX is the ticker for the ETF that tracks the mining stocks).<BR/><BR/>The spot price is influenced by volume in the spot, and somewhat by volume in the futures nodoodahshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05324705536306995431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-49718385409459290632008-04-17T11:27:00.000-05:002008-04-17T11:27:00.000-05:00Bill: You are correct that it's not necessarily th...Bill: You are correct that it's not necessarily the gold metal it's tracking, but gold and gold miner stocks. They do seem to follow closely. <BR/><BR/>I trade stocks, not the commodity itself, so GLD works out nicely for me. As for the fact that GLD tracks volume of many stocks--I like that. I am not dependent on the whims of one stock.The Market Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15108816250543774083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-911718580796165762008-04-17T09:50:00.000-05:002008-04-17T09:50:00.000-05:00Actually, Vinay had the comment about pullbacks.Yo...Actually, Vinay had the comment about pullbacks.<BR/><BR/>You didn't address the volume issue - highlighting volume on an ETF that tracks some other underlying, which has its OWN volume that needs to be analyzed, instead of the ETF's volume.<BR/><BR/>I don't really have an opinion on your trade in GLD, since both you and my model portfolio could be right simultaneously, since you and it trade nodoodahshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05324705536306995431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-13287649423747223202008-04-17T09:37:00.000-05:002008-04-17T09:37:00.000-05:00TraderMD. You could very well be correct. We sha...TraderMD. You could very well be correct. We shall see. That's why I'm playing both longs and shorts right now.<BR/><BR/>Bill: The difference in this pullback is it broke support. The other pullbacks never did.<BR/><BR/>Vinnay: You guys could be right about gold. However, profit taking usually isn't on such extreme volume. Generallly buyers will step up at support levels.The Market Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15108816250543774083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-1153980323182466332008-04-17T08:51:00.000-05:002008-04-17T08:51:00.000-05:00I agree with your HAL trade; I just don't see this...I agree with your HAL trade; I just don't see this stock going much higher- so either we will get some sideways consolidation or the pullback that you expect.<BR/><BR/>On GLD, there are too many mixed signals here. If you look at the chart for about a year or so, you will see that there have been a few pullbacks and each pullback has been on decent volume. However, the upward trend has remained Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18249762218280375649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-27826392912246250742008-04-17T08:42:00.000-05:002008-04-17T08:42:00.000-05:00I noticed yesterday that you used a volume chart f...I noticed yesterday that you used a volume chart for the GLD; perhaps it would be more appropriate to use a volume chart for the futures contract, or a volume number (if you can get it) for the spot price of gold?<BR/><BR/>GLD doesn't necessarily represent the real players in terms of moving gold.<BR/><BR/>No personal positions, but my Rotational model portfolio is long GLD.nodoodahshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05324705536306995431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-39436577486782148532008-04-17T02:56:00.000-05:002008-04-17T02:56:00.000-05:00I posted on my blog today and yesterday that the r...I posted on my blog today and yesterday that the reaction to Intel and Wamu's numbers have been a pretty bullish sign (their numbers weren't all that great). Also if you remember between the August interim bottom of last year and October we basically continued higher on light volume. I'm pretty bullish right now. I see a lot of great charts on the long side. <BR/><BR/>If I'm wrong I'll definitelyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com