"A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game."
-quote from legendary trader Jesse Livermore.
I keep this quote, along with many others, by my desk to make sure I trust my own analysis. In the past, and even now occasionally, I would lose so much confidence in my own judgements (usually after listening to a CNBC or online pundit) that I would actually back out of existing positions, only to see them do exactly as I had expected. Luckily, with experience I've gained some confidence as well. For example, over the past few days I've received a number of emails telling me I am wrong about the GG trade, and that my expectations for oil and metals over the short term is off or too risky. In the past I probably would have thought, "even though it looks good to me, all these smart people can't be wrong". Not anymore. Only time will tell if I can make a "living at this game", but right or wrong, I'm going to trust my own judgment.