Monday, November 13, 2006

Daily Schedule

I received an email today from a reader who is a part-time trader and is having a tough time fitting his nightly stock analysis in around his job and family responsibilities. Everybody has different responsibilities and schedules, so this may not be of much help, but here is my schedule for tonight, copied directly from my journal:

4:30-5:00: Drive home
5:15-5:30 : Work out (Treadmill, Chest and Triceps)
6:15-6:45: Dinner
6:45-7:30: Play and learning activities with daughter
7:30-9:30: Watch DVRed shows (Prison Break, Heroes and Studio 60)
9:30-11:30: Stock Analysis (Sector Watchlist, Stock Watchlist, Journal notes, read blogs and financial sites).
11:30-1:00 Watch DVRed Monday Night Football
1:00-2:00 Read God Delusion by Richard Dawkins
2:00-7:00 Sleep

DVR has been a huge time saver. I can get through a 1 hour show in only 40 minutes by skipping commercials and opening credits, and 3 hour football games only take about and hour and a half to get through. The disadvantage is I miss out on any funny commercials, but hey, that's what youtube's for . . .


Anonymous said...

Geez my day is so different.
6:00 in the morning walk dog. Make coffee.
7:00 begin stock research
9:30 trades.
10 0r 11 : one hour workout tues, thurs & fridays
Noon take first pipe. Lunch.
2:00 - 4:00 make sales and other trades.
4:00 pick up son at preschool
4:30 buy Daktronics from some sucker in aftermarket!
5:00 begin drinking & partaking in ceremonial smoke
6:00 dinner making
7:00 TV goes on for kid.
8:00 bedtime book read for kid
8:30 drinking becomes heavy. Smoke thicker.
9:00 hopefully good movie comes on the cable.
10:30 usually pass out some nights hold on for late Knick or Net game or for Comedy Central shows that start at 11:00 on those nights I will usually take it through a Curbed Your Enthusiasm before collapsing. ~ The stonedinvestor

The Market Speculator said...

you are definately living the dream, my friend!

Anonymous said...

I feel it's the results that count & so far I'm doing better than the paid friends helping me, I do think productivity is important though- here's my thoughts on the direction of the market starting today- keep up the great work!~ Ben.

Well folks the time has come to say ENOUGH! As you may remember we called the rally to the DAY and now we are sticking our necks out and predicting a decline starting tomorrow.
We are doing this with no economic news on tap and no other catalyst that we can think of to set this decline off. Then why oh why are we ruining the fun?

Well It's The Productivity Stupid! In the 1990's big gains in corporate efficiency brought on by high tech spending & global trade was THE key factor in holding down inflation. You don't hear much about worker productivity lately from the Fed whereas Greenspan used to talk about it all the time. Why no mention from Big Ben? Well because the news is not very good.
In 2003 we reached a PEAK rate of 4% productivity growth As of the third quarter we were down to 1.9%. This takes a little time to work it's way through the economy but it's the slowest rate in 9 years! The newest reports we have read suggest a rate of 1.3% and that rate WILL be revised even lower early next year when the Labor Dept. incorporates recent hours worked info from 2005 and 2006 (a lot of overtime- not new hires). Productivity slow down means the economy has less room to grow without generating inflation ,this is showing up in the labor market that continues to TIGHTEN even as economic growth SLOWS. The result labor costs are spiking. And just at a time when most companies productivity gains are to weak to offset a pay raise to the workforce. October hourly pay was up a whopping 4% from the year before.

The Fed then is in a bind. As economic activity reaccelerates as we think it will after the midyear cycle slowdown the labor markets will tighten further-- Quite simply running at absolute employment is BAD for inflation. So whereas commodity-based inflation and oil has retreated and that has caused inflation to appear to have peaked - the end result may be quite a bit more inflation than the Fed can be comfortable with. Big Ben will have to continue his rate raising cycle and that will put us in a risk of recession in mid to late 2007.

Why correction now then? Well things don't go straight up. The VIX is popping under 11 complacency is everywhere-- oil is hovering at $60 not $50 despite the warm weather on the East coast. It's really just a GUT feeling one gets from studying the markets for 20 years but the Bears are getting rolled day after day, liquidity is so low ONE $500 million dollar futures buy the other day set off a stampede on the upside in the S&P 500. I have never seen that before. The buybacks by corporations have helped this rally and corporate earnings so much! However, the recent round of mega IPO's has us worried that some of the excess liquidity is now being mopped up.

The Fed is expecting an economic slowdown sufficient enough to generate enough slack in the labor market to allow price pressure to ease.
Stoned Investing is not so sure. And even if we do slow down inventories are so high right now , 7.5% higher than last year-- that won't be good either.

So the call is for two weeks of pain ~ maybe 5%....

Ben H, SI.