Wednesday, August 22, 2007

SGR Lookin' Like a Dead Cat

Shaw Group Inc. (SGR) is a former high flying stock that seems to have lost its mojo. In July, the stock gapped up after a long uptrend, but could not hold the gap level. It now looks like the gap was an "exhaustion gap", which usually comes at the end of an uptrend and signals a downswing.

SGR is in the midst of what could be a "dead cat bounce." As a short play, I like the fact that the bounce towards the 50 day moving average has been on low volume. Take a look at the recent volume pattern I highlighted on the chart; lots of high volume down days sprinkled with a few low volume up days. This is a bearish volume pattern.

This is a great short play that I wish I had entered at the close today. If I see price strength on weak volume, I will likely give it a go tomorrow (as long as price does not cross the 50 day moving average without moving back down).


The Market Speculator said...

I exited all of my long positions on strength this morning. I'll post the details later today.

I also took a position in GMCR and DSD (short S& P).

Anonymous said...

Do you have any idea what you are talking about. Why don't you do a periodic review of your "predictions" and present some statistics. Like how often did you get it right, and how often did you get it wrong

The Market Speculator said...

The chart analysis of SGR was not a prediction. At any rate, SGR still has not done anything to negate my analysis.

You are welcome to do a periodic review of my trades. I think you'll find I'm doing quite well.