I sold 500 shares of GRMN at $107.04 (entry at $105.25) for a $825 gain (+1.7%).
I don't feel good about this trade. It may sound hard to believe, but I am probably more conflicted about this trade than any losing trade I've this past year.
After reading comments and personal e-mails responding to the post announcing my trade yesterday, I began to question my entry. This morning I decided that I would ignore my target and take profits if the stock bounced today. When the stock hit $107, that's exactly what I did. Normally, I would wait for the stock to either reach my target or my stop.
Today, I let my emotions get the best of me and played it a little too safe. The stock broke out over resistance, picking up volume, and is up on a day where the markets are down and breadth is terrible. There is not reason for me to have exited!
I'll chalk this up to a lesson learned: Trust my own analysis and don't let outside opinions cloud my own judgement.
Note: I value all commentary, questions and analysis from my readers, even if it is contrary to my own opinions or analysis. My rant is against my own judgement, not the comments themselves. Please do not hesitate to leave feedback, via post or email.
5 comments:
No need to feel bad. GRMN is seeing some serious money flow divergences on this breakout. It could keep going, but if it gets faded it could come back quickly.
MS: I got into GRMN at 104.50 because of the nice volume on the breakout. I got out at 106.50 this morning because I stared at the chart last night and saw the lower high on the MACD and RSI, that scared me a bit.
The fact that GRMN held up with all the negativity in the market is a good sign. I might get it on some strength.
Great blog. i learn a lot from you. Keep up the good work.
Thanks Raj
Do visit my blog
http://lonelytrader.blogspot.com
Raj,
Nice blog. I like your watchlist format.
SRS,
Yeah, it's a tough one to call right now. Just look at the tail. The close was disappointing in that it didn't end up near the high, but it held support and was up on a down day.
MS(Paul), lets compare GRMN and EXM without any indicators etc.
Same situation, breakout push to 52-week new high with a difference in volume. In EXM case, volume in that breakout was 52-week highest:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52052939001 so it points that something strong pushed it higher, not just speculators playing with price and it's a reason for continuation of price going higher not matter where market going. In GRMN case volume wasn't biggest http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=grmn&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52052939001 but it still was breakout, and in weak market this breakout can easily become false breakout very soon.
It's just common sense here.
P.S. Sorry for English.
Best regards and profitable trading,
Leon
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