Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Ain't No Glass Chin Here

I'm taking it on the chin today. Not only from the market, but readers as well. It's comforting to know that I can bring so much joy to so many of you. It seems some of you derive a lot of pleasure from my pain. I guess that comes with the territory, especially with the profits and win rate I've enjoyed this year. Yeah, that is a jab at the petty bastards that bombarded my inbox. May you rot in 10 feet of bull dung!

I haven't covered any of my shorts just yet. As I constantly preach, it's important to let your stops work for you. As of yet, no major S/R points have busted, so I remain in bear mode. However, we are getting close. For instance, my stop for AAPL is a tad above $181, and the stock closed at $180.22. My QID stop is around $37.60, PGJ at $34.50 and MER above $60.

While I'm not concerned about any losses I may suffer from the above trades, I am ticked off about not entering MA at $181 (it's currently at $195.60). I outlined it in Monday's video, and pointed out that it is a better bounce play than bearish looking setups like AAPL and GOOG. Note that MA was up 6.30 percent today , while GOOG moved only 2.77 and AAPL 3.09 percent.

My mistake with MA was waiting for too perfect of an entry. I've talked about this before. I am not usually all that precise with entry points, as long as risk/reward is good. What was I thinking!!!

13 comments:

Rajaram Pai said...

My thoughts exactly on MA. It was intersting however, that AAPL, RIMM and GOOG all that Fibonacci retracements on the sell off the last couple of weeks.

Bill aka NO DooDahs! said...

Don't worry about it too much, everybody loses money at times, sometimes through mistakes (like I did going short betting on a third leg of the correction in March), sometimes even though they're *right* (following a system that works long-term). It happens.

Hey, you mentioned your win rate/returns, but I didn't see a category of posts for them ... do you publish a regular breakdown (i.e. monthly, weekly, whatever) of returns?

Glenn said...

Hang in if you can, long term I think we go down too. I have tried being swing short for a month now and it is a battle of all battles. If you have haters it means you are more popular than you think.

Anonymous said...

Hang in there, I personally think you might just be early. sharpest of rallies occur in the midst of bear phases...

Don't let the haters get to you either.

-Big Bill

Anonymous said...

I am sorry to say this but this is a bull market folks. This pullback has been a buying op not a selling op. Example goog bidu have moved up 50 points since the market correction and are going much higher. I made a ton of cash buying aapl at 170 while still holding for 200+. the last push down we had before the massive run up was a classic bear trap. Look for longs in strong stocks and do not short this market. Look what happened to the market speculator when he went short aapl he lost money he should have fucused on the long plays would have made more money that is why you lost that op buying mastercard becuase you were focused on the wrong direction of the market you need to look at weekly charts for guidance. My name is stockfuturemaster(as a handle) I will update you again in the near future.Just remember this market is going much higher right into 2008 and will go strong into march 2008. More interest rates cuts coming will spark a massive rally watch and learn. Who ever went short strong leaders aapl goog bidu fwlt are now deep in the red while many who bought the support are deep in the green ex aapl. Good luck

Anonymous said...

market speculator take a look at a weekly chart of aapl and you will understand why aapl was not a good short and that the pull back was a buying op I bought at 170 and am up 14 points so far. Stockfuturemaster.

Will said...

Just that old Schadenfreude again, which seems to be everywhere, but is particularly acute in would-be traders. I have some buddies at work who get positively GLEEFUL when I lose money. Just think of it as sniping from the peanut gallery... proof you're doing something RIGHT.

Anyone who follows you regularly knows the quality of the setups you've documented.

And as for this current one... you may yet have the last laugh. I've just written a post earlier tonight on how the last 3 days have perfectly mimicked the 3 days in August before the last, big, spooky drop. Tomorrow needs to see some supportive volume, else your shorts may suddenly look f**king brilliant to the doubters.

Best of luck and keep up the good work!

The Market Speculator said...

Raj,
Interesting note on Fibs. I don't pay much attention to them, but I know many successful traders who live by them.

The Market Speculator said...

Bill,
I hope to start posting my monthly win rate and profits, going back to the beginning of the year.

The Market Speculator said...

Thanks Glenn. We'll see how the market unfolds. Bear market bounces can be quite strong. Many end up losing money even though they had the correct prediction.

The Market Speculator said...

Bullish Anonymous,
You could very well be right. I guarantee you if the bulls take control and break resistance, I will be on the long side.

The Market Speculator said...

Big Bill and anonymous,
Don't worry. The "haters" are little more than an annoyance.

The Market Speculator said...

Will,
I hoe I end up looking brilliant :)