Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Short Term Capitulation?

I have a feeling we might be in the midst of short term capitulation. Things look really bad, many former leaders are getting abused and it is really tough to buy right now.

Note that does not mean we are going to see the uptrend resume. If we get a post capiutlation bounce, I think it will be of the "dead cat" variety, and we we resume the downtrend later this month. A bounce might be a good place to add shorts.

I have exited most shorts and made two buys.

I took a pilot position in RICK at $24.90. My stop is just under $24, with the recent high at $28. Low risk, decent reward. If the market continues to tank and I get stopped out, no big deal.

My other buy was MON at average price $115.23. This one got dicey when it dropped below $110, but it has recoved and his back up over $117.

I likely won't do anymore buying. I don't like to go all in on up bounces in downtrending markets. I'll make a few small long plays, but that's it. I do still like gold and oil related stocks on the long side.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

nice call, again.

tellzhang said...

do you have any book to recommand to read about the Trend, accumulation and distribution patterns?

Many thanks!

Tony(Tom)

TVH said...

Nice call. It was looking too easy to short this morning. Plan on sending some profits to help your boy Obama? :) I was surprised to see Hillary overtake him. How about McCain, my darkhorse candidate for the republicans.

The Market Speculator said...

Tellzhang,
Not too many books focus heavily on accumulation and distribution patterns. It is something you will pick up on by studying charts. Go back and look at charts of stocks that made big runs and declines. Study the volume and price action. After a while, it will all start to click. Honestly, doing that is better than what any book could tell you.

TVH: Man, I was bummed out about NH. Yesterday it seemed like a sure thing for Obama. I used to like McCain (even though he is a Republican), but he's become more conservative over the years. I lost respect for him after 9-11 and the beginning of the Iraq War. Still, if a Republican wins, I'd rather have him than Romney or Huckabee.