Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Classic Bear Market Action

While I try to stay away from the chatter of market pundits, I do like to keep an eye on what a few select bloggers and "market gurus" that I respect have to say. What surprises me today is that I am hearing, even from those who I respect, that a bottom has been made. I disagree.

What I see are signs of a classic bear market, and today is a great example. We had wonderful news that Warren Buffet, our modern day Stanely Morgan, is coming to the rescue of at risk insurers. The market goes nuts. Everybody is buying. SPY trades up over $136. The Q's trade up to $44.68. The bear market is over . . . not.

We end the day with the Q's in negative terriroty and SPY making a modest gain way off the highs. My friends, this is what happens in a classic bear market. We may still get a bit more bounce, but I have a strong feeling we will come back down.

What would make me change my bear market thesis? If the S&P can breakout over the 50 day moving average (currently 1416) on strong volume, I'll change my tune.

3 comments:

masteroftheuniverse said...

Hey, I'm totally confused about the market's direction. This is the strangest market I've seen since 1976.....However, outside of the equities, there's a lot of "Shooting fish in a barrel" trades out there/

Jeff

Anonymous said...

I completely agree with your thesis. To add an icing to the bear side, Mr. Buffet comes to the party.

TraderMark said...

Darn I was hoping I was a respected blogger by now ;)