Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Today's Trade Entries: DUG and AGU

I bought 200 shares of DUG at $46.56. DUG is an ETF that is short oil and gas. Looking at the chart, we see major accumulation and a pullback to a major moving average and price support. Note that this is the opposite of what is happening in the oil service complex. What we are really seeing is major distribution and a weak bounce to resistance levels.



I went short 200 shares of AGU at $62.16. My analysis tells me that many of the agriculture, chemical and farming stocks look toppish right now. I am already short MON, and have added AGU as a short. We've got all the classic signails: topping price pattern, break of support and heavy volume distribution.

Note that shorting this sector is not for the faint of heart. Many still think the sector has legs, and will try to get in on dips. They will likely get burned, but we still could see some bounces. When shorting a momo sector as it looks to be topping, you must manage risk and set logical stop losses.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

From your previous posting, i noticed that you don't like to open position(long or short) when stock is about to announce earnings. AGU is announcing earnings tomorrow( i guess)..... Is this deliberate move to short or mistake?

madhatter said...

not to mention TRA BG CF... tons of ag names reporting earnings tomorrow...

wouldn't particularly want to be short going into them

Anonymous said...

I think you should start a stock picking service your on fire.

Anonymous said...

AGU announce earning tomorrow.

Tony

Anonymous said...

Can you publish your stop loss's when you enter a position. It would be very helpful to get a better idea of your trading thoughts. IE: What is your stop loss on DUG and AGU? Thanks.