Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Thesis for Fed Day

Everybody is gearing up for Fed day. There will likely be volatility and an overreaction to the decision. Even if the Street gets what it wants, a positive price move will likely be short lived. As Rob at Quantifiable Edges points out, positive reactons to the fed tend to fade over the following two weeks.

Technicals also do not lend themselves to a sustained upside move. The market is overbought (see stochastic levels) and price has made a strong "v" move right into resistance. The market needs a pullback before making a big move higher.


John Forman said...

I agree. This market makes me nervous. Volume is poor and so's open interest in the index futures. The internals (A/D) aren't confirming the new highs either.

The Market Speculator said...

I failed to mention sentiment indicators in my post (like A/D, T2108, etc). Thanks for the insight, John.

zeus111 said...

How do you know that the market will make a big move higher? If this is a bear market this move should die very soon as we approach the 200 sdma. Bear market rallies have the tendency to die within 2% above or above theit 200 sdma and we are at that level. Should we be prepared for another leg down?