Complex systems are rarely predictable. For this reason, I focus as much on risk in my trading systems as I do stock picking and setups.
In most disciplines that try to predict the future, the so-called experts aren't much better than a novice. This series highlights this point.
In the 1979 NBA draft, Larry Bird was drafted 6th overall. Considered of the the greatest players in NBA history, he lead the Boston Celtics multiple championships, was a 12 time All Star and helped revitalize the NBA with his rivlary with Magic Johnson.
Many of the experts said he was too slow, could not jump, and his college game would not transfer to the NBA. Only one of the five players selected ahead of him made an all-star team, and none are in the Hall of Fame. Obviously, the experts go this one wrong.