Thursday, January 04, 2007

General Dynamics Revisited

GD (General Dynamics Corp.) has been a good "buying the extremes" play over the past few months. If you had bought the stock in late October, when the stock hit an extreme stochastic reading, and sold once the stock was extremely overbought, the trade would have been good for a 4 point gain. In December, over a shorter holding period, you would have been good for almost a 3 point gain. The stock is nearing oversold status again, and I'll be looking to buy near past support levels *if the stock reaches a 20 or lower stochastic reading*, and the stock stays above the $72 support level.

Another way to play GD is to wait for the stock to breakout of it's current trading range. Volume by price bars show strong resistance right around $75. There's room to move if the stock can breakout at this level.

Keep in mind that holding times for this trade are a little longer than usual (2-4 weeks). Also, you must give yourself some room on the stops. In November, after hitting extreme levels, the stock dropped another point before lifting off. A good stop point for the current trade would be under $72, although I'd probably place it at $71.


walter said...


any reason why you like the 5,3,3 setting for you full stochastic vs. the typical 14,3,3...

makes all the difference in terms of measuring those oversold and overbought periods...


The Market Speculator said...

Good question Walter,
It's all about time frames. Since most of my trades are between 2 days and 2 weeks, I think the 5 period works well. If I were holding for a month or more, I would go with the 14 day.

I actually do look at the 14 day, as the longer the time frame, the more powerful the signal. My favorite trades are when the 5 day is confirmed by the 14 day.

walter said...

sounds good - thanks

somtimes with STO, a cross of the 50 line or holding the 50 line whether rising or falling can be significant.

oversold or overbougt in 14 may be the 50 indicator in the 5...