Thursday, March 15, 2007

Trade: Playing the Lehman bounce

Investment banking stocks such as LEH and MS have been crushed over the past couple of weeks. It's always risky to go counter to a strong downtrend, but I think LEH is a low risk bounce setup right now. LEH almost broke down below to strong areas of support: the 200 day moving average at $72.21 and price support at about $70. Notice what happened when the stock broke down; it immediately reversed itself and printed a long, long tail. This is a sign that the stock is oversold, holding at resistance, and is in for at least a short term bounce.

I bought 700 shares of LEH at $72.05. This is a short term play. I would not be surprised if the stock retests these lows. I already sold half of my position at $73.38 for a $465 gain ( 1.8%). I'll let the remaining 350 shares ride for a few days and place a stop at my purchase price, which is just under the 200 day moving average.

For those considering placing a trade here, it might be too late. Note that RSI and stochastics have moved out of oversold territory.

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