Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Chart: Analyzing the Nasdaq Composite

Wow, that was some fakeout we saw today. Once the Nasdaq broke down below 2350 and the recent low, I was sure we were headed for a retest of the 200 day MA. Now I'm not so sure. The Naz (and other indexes), printed quite a powerful candle today on good volume. Take a look at the chart:

At this point, it's a really tough to call technically. We have stochastics that hit the overbought levels on a low volume pullback (bearish) and now looks to be headed to oversold territory. This would suggest that there is more room to go down, possibly to the 200 day MA. However, RSI could be printing a higher high. Another bullish signal is the fact that the Naz printed a "long tailed" candle at a strong resistance point.

I'm going to hold on to my QID (short 2X Q) position for the time being, and may add to it if it drops to the $54-55 range on *light volume*. Volume is the key. If we bounce on light volume, we're probably just setting up for more downside. However, if we bounce on strong volume, we may have just printed a bottom, at least for the time being. Only time will tell.

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