Tuesday, August 07, 2007

$SPX Revisited

On Friday I brought up the idea that we *may* have had a capitulation event that marked the end of the current correction. Today's strong move in the $SPX, back over the 200 day moving average on heavy volume, lends more credence to the bull capitulation argument.

There are a couple of things to note before throwing caution to the wind. First, Ben's announcement today could reek havoc on the market and negate any of the forming technicals. Second, even if Friday was a capitulation event, it may take some time to form.

Take a look at the capitulation event that ended the early March correction and preceded the next bull run. While the market did run up slightly after capitulation, it reversed and formed a "double bottom" before heading back to new highs. This is quite common after a big correction. Many nervous bulls will use that first big bounce to get out of the market at a decent price, so it takes some time to breakout over the first resistance. However, once that resistance point clears, there is a lot of money to be made.

1 comment:

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