Wednesday, January 02, 2008

First Mistake of the New Year

Well my friends, it didn't take me long to make a boneheaded move, on the very first day trading day of the new year. I went long MON. It looks great. A sector I love, and have made some mad coin playing (agriculture). Nice pullback to support. Nice volume pattern showing accumulation. Entry not too far from the 20 day moving average. The stock ends up only slightly down on a horrible day for the indexes, and up about a dollar from my entry. What's not to love?

I forgot to check the earnings schedule for the stock. Of course, as reader Tom pointed out, MON reports tomorrow morning. WTF??? How could I have missed that? I'm getting sloppy. Inexcusable mistake. As many of you know, I love to play earnings, but only post breakout. I never like to hold a stock going into earnings.

Even if the stock knocks the socks off the street, this will go down in my journal as a bad trade. I had absolutely no edge going into earnings, and set myself up for failure. Words cannot express how mad I am at myself.

I will probably place a stop before the earnings report just under today's low. If I'm feeling a bit more risky, i'll place it under the 20 day moving average.

10 comments:

tellzhang said...

Come on, man! You are the best trader I have ever seen...we are human and we do make mistakes. Did you know: after huge loses, I came back to trading AGAIN because of your sharing and blog? You did a wonderful job!

Thank you and Happy Trading!

Tony(Nick name: Tom)

Rajaram Pai said...

Looks like you did ok. MON is up this am on earnings report.

drnova2000 said...

Market Speculator

Great Job on MON!! Sometimes accidents are the best thing.

A couple of times I mess up and tried to buy calls for stocks when I entered puts. They all turned in profitable. So I guess I'm horrible at reading charts, but have enough luck on my side to prevent me from lossing much.

I love to read your blog, keep up the good work. You are really good trader!!

Anonymous said...

A string of "mistakes" like MON and you can retire!!!!!
Time to raise your stop and be happy!
Well done.
Cheers

Bill Luby said...

Well, at least you went long MON Wed instead of long MON Mon, which would really have been tempting fate...

I still like the play, even though it didn't work this time around.

Thanks for all your good work from a long-time reader via a feed,

-Bill

Anonymous said...

does it still count as a mistake now?

The Market Speculator said...

Quick note that I bought 50 shares of BIDU at $370.52.

The Market Speculator said...

Guys,
Thanks for the encouraging words. I know it must seem crazy to you guys that I consider what is now about a ten point gain in one day a mistake. But it is.

Don't get me wrong, I am happy and relieved that MON posted an earnings surprise that the market loved. I actually was expecting a good earnings report. However, there's just not enough of an edge in trying to game earnings (at least I don't have one). Back in my early trading days, I got burned more than once on earnings day. Playing earnngs is a high risk, high reward endevor, and I prefer low risk, medium to high reward.

Anonymous said...

you see your long mon making great cash short drys your going to lose cash and if we base the drys trade on who will make money it will not be you in drys.
futuremaster

Jack said...

Gee,

If every bonehead move I made turned out like your move on MON...I would not be too disappointed. It's called livin right my friend. Don't be too hard on yourself.

Jack