Wednesday, April 16, 2008

How Can You Not Bet Against Gold?

I am hearing a lot of bullish chatter amongst bloggers and media about the near future for gold. This seems to always happen when a former leader (momo stock) breaks down and prints a dead cat bounce. I love it when this happens.

Let's ignore the talking heads and take a look at the chart. First, we see a head and shoulders top that is in the later stages of forming. Many traders like to wait for price to break the neckline, which is the line drawn on the chart below around $85. I don't take this conservative approach when a stock is clearly showing distribution--heavy volume on the initial breakdown. Once I see a weak volume bounce up towards resistance, I enter.

The neckline is my initial target, where I will likely take partial profits and move my stop to protect the profit. If the neckline breaks, the remaining shares will likely give me a huge gain. If I get stopped out, I will usually still make a nice 5-10 percent gain.

Back to the chart. Take a look at the squares drawn over the volume bars. It is clear that the volume pattern is bearish. Huge volume on the initial drop and overall heavier volume on down days signals distribution. The smaller rectangle highlights the volume on the recent bounce. The putrid volume tells me there's not much conviction right now and the ETF is not ready to reclaim its momo status (heavy volume on the bounce would tell me the bounce was just a deep pullback within trend).

Finally, the stochastic confirms the theory that the bounce has created an overbought condition within a down move that provides for a good entry.

Today i added to my bearish gold position, buying 400 shares of DZZ at $26.60. While I use GLD for my gold analysis, I like use DZZ to take a short position, since it provides extra leverage.



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3 comments:

Ryan said...

personally I see an inverse H&S... GLD is going to shoot over 100 IMO. good luck

The Market Speculator said...

inverse head and shoulders?

X771OAM7h52g3j3dqoSWSOTlATZ7 said...

I'm in this trade as well. Unfortunately I bought in yesterday at 26.66 so im sitting pretty heavily in the Red. My concern going forward is that GLD has gapped significantly above its 50 day MA. The failed attempt earlier was my primary reason for the trade so im a bit worried now that that has been violated. GLD isn't seeing much weakness so we can pretty much guarantee that it will close over that 92.71 MA. What do you think?



Great blog by the way... i read it as often as i can