If QLD (leveraged long Qs) drops down in the $70-70.50 range, I will likely take a position. It wouldn't be surprising for the bounce to reach the 50 day ma around $75. I would likely make $74 my target and place a stop in the $68-69 range.
Showing posts with label nasdaq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nasdaq. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Expect a Bounce in Nasdaq
The bullish setup that I had been watching and trading in the Nasdaq was obliterated earlier this week. While the trend is now decidedly bearish, we are nearing a strong support zone that could provide a bounce that can be traded.
If QLD (leveraged long Qs) drops down in the $70-70.50 range, I will likely take a position. It wouldn't be surprising for the bounce to reach the 50 day ma around $75. I would likely make $74 my target and place a stop in the $68-69 range.
If QLD (leveraged long Qs) drops down in the $70-70.50 range, I will likely take a position. It wouldn't be surprising for the bounce to reach the 50 day ma around $75. I would likely make $74 my target and place a stop in the $68-69 range.
Monday, March 19, 2007
Freshly Squeezed
Days like today tend to turn smack talking bears into nervous nellies with itchy trigger fingers. This gives rise to a nice little stock market pop that makes everybody wonder if we really have seen th worst of it and bottomed. Maybe we have, though I seriously doubt it. More likely, what we have today is a good old fashioned short squeeze.
Take a look at the Nasdaq chart below. If today's price bar had been wide ranging, closed near the high, pushed through 2400 and been on high volume, I would be rethinking my game plan. As we can see, that's not what happened. Instead, we got a weak little pop on below average volume, which is certainly not cause to change our market stance.
If you are holding shorts and feeling a little pressure, look away and do something totally non-market related. Let your stops work for you. You placed them where you did for a reason. Covering now could just lead to trading yourself out of a good position.
If you are wrong, and we are in the midst of reversing, big deal. After all, you prudently managed your risk-reward and position sizes before the trade; so a few losing trades ain't gonna kill ya. You did do that, right?
Take a look at the Nasdaq chart below. If today's price bar had been wide ranging, closed near the high, pushed through 2400 and been on high volume, I would be rethinking my game plan. As we can see, that's not what happened. Instead, we got a weak little pop on below average volume, which is certainly not cause to change our market stance.
If you are holding shorts and feeling a little pressure, look away and do something totally non-market related. Let your stops work for you. You placed them where you did for a reason. Covering now could just lead to trading yourself out of a good position.
If you are wrong, and we are in the midst of reversing, big deal. After all, you prudently managed your risk-reward and position sizes before the trade; so a few losing trades ain't gonna kill ya. You did do that, right?
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Chart: Analyzing the Nasdaq Composite
Wow, that was some fakeout we saw today. Once the Nasdaq broke down below 2350 and the recent low, I was sure we were headed for a retest of the 200 day MA. Now I'm not so sure. The Naz (and other indexes), printed quite a powerful candle today on good volume. Take a look at the chart:
At this point, it's a really tough to call technically. We have stochastics that hit the overbought levels on a low volume pullback (bearish) and now looks to be headed to oversold territory. This would suggest that there is more room to go down, possibly to the 200 day MA. However, RSI could be printing a higher high. Another bullish signal is the fact that the Naz printed a "long tailed" candle at a strong resistance point.
I'm going to hold on to my QID (short 2X Q) position for the time being, and may add to it if it drops to the $54-55 range on *light volume*. Volume is the key. If we bounce on light volume, we're probably just setting up for more downside. However, if we bounce on strong volume, we may have just printed a bottom, at least for the time being. Only time will tell.
At this point, it's a really tough to call technically. We have stochastics that hit the overbought levels on a low volume pullback (bearish) and now looks to be headed to oversold territory. This would suggest that there is more room to go down, possibly to the 200 day MA. However, RSI could be printing a higher high. Another bullish signal is the fact that the Naz printed a "long tailed" candle at a strong resistance point.
I'm going to hold on to my QID (short 2X Q) position for the time being, and may add to it if it drops to the $54-55 range on *light volume*. Volume is the key. If we bounce on light volume, we're probably just setting up for more downside. However, if we bounce on strong volume, we may have just printed a bottom, at least for the time being. Only time will tell.
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