A Monsanto Topping Pattern?

I went short 100 shares of MON at $120.76. Rather than analyze the trade setup as I have been doing, I'd like to take a look at MON's weekly chart. It's starting to look like a top might be forming.

Take a look at the price action. For the fist time in two years, the trend is stalling and we are starting to see a volatile, 30 point range forming. This by itself is not a sure fire bearish signal.

However, when we add volume, a bearish "tell" forms. Volume during this range has been decidedly bearish--lots of tall red vs short grey bars. RSI is also divergent during this range. The recent high was not confirmed by a high in RSI, which is not a bullish sign.

My current trade was not based off the weekly chart, and I am using a tight stop. If I do go short in my longer term position trade account (which I do not detail here), I would place a stop at the recent high around $132, with an initial target at the bottom of the range around $90. A second target would be at $70, the last area of consolidation.

Today's Trade (FWLT), Market Notes and Off-Topic

I bought 100 shares of FWLT at $129.26. This is a small feeler position and I will buy more on a pullback into the $125-126 range. To the upside, I will buy more on a break of $135. Note that this is a position trade with a longer time frame than some of my recent trades.

I am glad we finally received a day of consolidation (although many stocks I follow are still on fire, ala BHP and GRMN). Hopefully we'll get a few more days like this, which will be great for trend-pullback plays.



Off-Topic:
This weekend I received more non-trading e-mails than usual. This is probably due to the links post and the new site design.

I'm still tinkering with the site design. By the end of the week it may look completely different. I welcome e-mails and feedback on the design.

I received and appreciated all of the tv show suggestions. It looks like I'm going to have to put some new shows on my Netflix list. As for new fall shows, tonight I'm going to sample Big Bang Theory and Chuck. Of course, I can't wait for the new Heroes episode.

Great weekend for NFL QBs. A ton of 300 yard games. Patriots win the Super Bowl. Anybody want to bet against me?

Primary Watchlist for Wednesday

Here are six of my favorite long candidates: VRGY, HEI, JCG, CYNO, OII, MT. All are trending stocks with nice pullbacks. While these are short term trade opportunities, MT and OII (two of my favorites in their respective sectors-steel and gas equipment) will be buys for my longer term position trading account if they pullback to the 50 day moving averages (red line).

I define a short term trade as anywhere from a few days to a few weeks, while the time frame for position trades is a few weeks to a few months.