Tuesday, May 13, 2008

A Monsanto Topping Pattern?

I went short 100 shares of MON at $120.76. Rather than analyze the trade setup as I have been doing, I'd like to take a look at MON's weekly chart. It's starting to look like a top might be forming.

Take a look at the price action. For the fist time in two years, the trend is stalling and we are starting to see a volatile, 30 point range forming. This by itself is not a sure fire bearish signal.

However, when we add volume, a bearish "tell" forms. Volume during this range has been decidedly bearish--lots of tall red vs short grey bars. RSI is also divergent during this range. The recent high was not confirmed by a high in RSI, which is not a bullish sign.

My current trade was not based off the weekly chart, and I am using a tight stop. If I do go short in my longer term position trade account (which I do not detail here), I would place a stop at the recent high around $132, with an initial target at the bottom of the range around $90. A second target would be at $70, the last area of consolidation.

1 comment:

sunyata said...


Does it concern you that the OBV is breaking out to new highs?