Showing posts with label risk reward ratio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk reward ratio. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Chart of the day: ARAY

Today's chart of the day is medical devices maker ARAY. The stock has pulled back to the 50 dma after a strong uptrend and is now oversold. This setup offers great reward to risk with a target near $10, entry around $9 and a stop around $8.75.

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With a 4: reward to risk ratio, you only need a 25 percent win rate to break even.  All it takes is a 33% win rate to be profitable and if you are at 50 percent, you will kill it. This is my kind of trade.

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Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Example of a Winning Trade and Smart Risk Management: SHAK

We have been talking a lot about risk management and how it relates to being a successful trader.  In fact, three of the first five trading quotes in the 100 trading quotes series related to risk management. This should clue you in on how important I believe risk management is to winning as a trader.

My latest BOW winning trade, SHAK, is a great example of applying risk management. A range had developed in the stock's setup that allowed me to enter at $45.92 with a stop under the $45 level.  I was risking $1.

My target was $50.50, which means I was risking $1 in order to make $4.58.  That gave me a fantastic 4.5:1 reward to risk ratio.

How does this impact my trading over the long term? If I were to have an average 50% win rate with this setup over 100 trades with a 500 share position size, I would make $89,500 over the course of those 100 trades.

Do you see the power of risk management?

This exercise shows that you can become a superstar trader even if  your stock picking ability is basically as random as flipping a coin.

The takeaway from this example and exercise is that you should spend as much time studying the risk management aspects of the setup as the pattern of the setup itself.
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Friday, March 13, 2015

100 Trading Quotes To Put Into Action And Change Your Life: Machiavelli On Risk Management



The greatest boxer of our time can't punch worth a lick. So why is Floyd Mayweather one of the greatest boxers of all time?

It is because he is a defensive prodigy. He protects himself. The man is a risk management wizard.

Even the most aggressive leaders understand that you can not go haphazardly into battle with your guns blazing. Before going on the offensive, you must protect yourself. Master strategist Niccolo Machiavelli gave us the following trading quote because he knew that the best offense is a great defense:

Men rise from one ambition to another: first they seek to secure themselves against attack, and then they attack others.

Machiavelli and Mayweather lived by these words, and so should a winning trader. As traders we must protect our capital from those trying as hard as they can to take it away from us.

How do we protect our trading capital? It's actually quite easy if you stick to these rules:

     Always enter a trade with a game plan. I know my entry level, target and stop before entering every trade.
 
     Adhere to strict risk management rules. The amount you risk should always give you a 1:2 ratio in relation to your potential gain.

     Religiously cut losses and let winners ride. Don't settle for small wins and big losses.

     Always seek value when entering a position. Do not chase entries and enter as close to support levels as possible.

     Never risk more than 2 percent of your account on any give trade. Go big or go home does not apply to traders.

When I analyze a setup, before I even consider the target and potential profit, I scrutinize how much I can lose. This is the opposite of what most amateur traders do, and is the biggest reason most traders lose money.

Never forget Machiavelli's trading quote: protect, then attack.

The 100 Quotes To Put Into Action and Change Your Life Series:

Quote 1: Nehru on Caution as Risk

Quote 2: Bruce Lee on Creating Opportunity

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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Recent Trade: GMCR

Yesterday I entered GMCR off a breakout-pullback setup at $93.44. Stop is under support and the target is the recent high around $98. This gives me a 3:1 reward to risk ratio.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Today's Entry: DIG

I entered DIG today. The stock has broke out over a W formation and the 50 day moving average. Another positive is the positive RSI divergence.

An entry here around $34.80, with a stop at $33.80 (under suppport) and target at the old high around $38 offers a nice 3:1 reward to risk ratio.

The stock is a bit overbought. Ideal entry is on a little more of a pullback.

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Trade Entry: AMZN

I entered AMZN based on 1) the oversold stochastic reading and 2) pullback to the 50 day moving average. There is not credible chart pattern, but risk is low and the two elements listed give a slight edge.

Stop is below the moving average, around $129. The intital target is $140, followed by $145.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Today's Trade: POT

I entered POT today on pullback. My stop is at $109 and target $117, giving me a 2:1 risk ratio.

Friday, September 25, 2009

APOL Offers a Low Risk Setup

APOL has a weird, volatile pattern, but still offers a low risk setup off a breakout-pullback.

An entry here at $71, with a stop under the moving average at $69.60 and a target at $74, offers a 2:1 reward to risk ratio.

CPLA, another education stock, has a similar setup.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Low Risk AMZN Short

AMZN has been a great "extremes" trade (stochastics 90+ and extended price) for the past few months, both as a long and short. The stock is again extended, and offers a low risk short opportunity.

Entry here with a tight stop offers a favorable a reward to risk ratio. Allow only for a small loss or big gain using a tight stop and target at least 2 times the stop.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

AIG is a Great Low Risk Setup

AIG's volume pattern shows that it is under accumulation. This pullback offers a low risk setup. If entered around $37, with a stop under the 20 day moving average at $34.50 and target near the recent high at $50, we are looking at a 6:1 reward ratio.

If you find enough trades like this, you only need to be correct 1 out of every 5 trades to make decent profits!

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Is DE (John Deere) a Short Setup?

A Trade Report member sent me an email about DE. Here is the e-mail and my response

I think it is great time to short "DE"? RSI, OBV and MACD are all bearish...plus, the Durable good is bad..

While the price pattern is not bearish, I agree in that RSI is showing a slight negative divergence and the stock is overbought. Resistance at $47-48 gives us an easy to manage trade, with a stop just obove that level. Teh $42.50 pivot area gives us an easy targt. Nice reward to risk.

However, keep in mind there is also a loose cup and handle formation and we could see a breakout at resistance. As long as you manage the trade properly and are willing to take a small loss, the trade is acceptable even with that concern.


Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Today's Trade: DRYS

1000 shares DRYS at $6.60. DRYS is a focus list stock from the Trade Report I send nightly to subscribers.

Setup: Breakout-pullback. The stock broke out over the 50 day moving average and has consolidated on low volume.

Trade Management: DRYS offers a good risk ratio and trade management. A stop can be placed under the 50 day moving average. I am taking a pilot positions here, and will add more if it dips closer to the moving average. Ideally I will take profits at the top of the breakout bar ($7), and let the rest "ride" by moving stop up to entry.

Concerns: Overall market is overbought. If the market pulls back, it could take DRYS with it.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Is This Breakout Sustainable?

The market and leading stocks are breaking out after a short consolidation period and overbought readings that are still extreme. Due to the extreme overbought readings, I'm taking a few "speculative" shorts. However, they are done with caution and small positions size.

The idea behind these trades is to expect a small loss. If the trade works, it will be a multiple R gain. It goes to my trading philosophy of small losses and multiple R gains.