Showing posts with label risk management. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk management. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

The Shocking Way That Winning Trades Blow Up Trading Accounts

You may have just crushed it with your biggest winning trade of the year, but you still do not know how to trade.

That rush your feeling means it was a bad trade.  Good trades are not exciting. If this trade was your biggest win of the year, you probably committed a cardinal trading sin.

A few big wins doesn't make you a big elephant
Common big win trading mistakes (and their mental trigger) include:
  1. Taking on too much risk (greed).
  2. Gambling by holding through earnings (FOMO-fear).
  3. Traded too big for your account size (greed).
  4. Piggybacking somebody else's trade without understanding the trade (fear and greed). 
There are many more trading leaks but these are the ones I see my students make over and over again.

There's a pattern at work here that ultimately leads you to blow up your account. Trust me I know because I have done it twice (see my story and listen to there interviews here and here).

The patterns goes a little something like this.

Fledgling trader (actually I also see way too many seasoned pros do this too) gets an idea from a member of the twitterati. Her rules allow here to risk up to 1 percent of her account, but this trade looks too good and she envisions the big gain. She uses all of her 25K account for this one trade and ends up risking 10%.

Earnings are three days away and again she imagines blow out earnings. While her rules tell her to get out of the trade before earnings, she fears missing out and gambles the entire position.

The trade worked and her account is now at 33K. She does this 10 more times and after a wild ride she's doubled up to 50K.

You think you are the shit. Best damn trader this side of Wall Street.

Thoughts of quitting your job fill your head. The two week notice is ready and your playlist has "take this job and shove it" on loop.

As any degenerate gambler knows, eventually your luck will run out.

You WILL blow up your account.

You do not know how to trade.

Before that happens get your stuff together and learn.

I'm here to help.



If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Thursday, April 28, 2016

It's the small wins that hurt

This is what holds many traders back.

The small wins.

Yet we love to take those small wins, and avoid small meaningless losses like the plague.

We are afraid of losses. It doesn't matter it it is big or small, that L is scary.

It's all about the fear of the loss.

Here is the rub: the fear of the loss is always worse than the loss itself.

Losses don't hurt as bad as you think.

Remember what it was like getting a shot when you were 10 years old? That drive to the doctor was terrifying. But then you turn your head, feel that little jab, and it's over and you wonder what you were so scared about.

Trading losses are the same.

Not only are losses not so bad, but often it means you are trading correctly.

I embrace small losses.

The reason is small losses combined with big wins means you are doing something right. On the other hand, small wins mean you are doing something wrong.

It's the small wins that hurt.




If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Thursday, July 09, 2015

Chart of the Day: How to Trade VIX

At the first sign of a market sell off or correction, my eyes leave my well developed focus list and turn to the CBOE Volatility Index, otherwise known as VIX. During market selloffs, it is crucial that you learn how to trade VIX.

Why do I love trading the VIX during sharp selloffs and corrections?
 
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It's because the VIX smells fear and acts accordingly with wild spikes. Okay, so in truth an insane calculation that some Ph.D wrote is used, but I like to think of the VIX like a shark smelling it's prey, attacking with a mad rush, enjoying the spoils of it's victory, then settling down.

In other words, the VIX will spike up when the market sells off, hang out at the high for a short period, then ramp back down as the market settles down.

Study this chart of VXX (VIX ETF) to understand the last few times VIX has made huge moves. We are talking 30-100 percent moves in 1-2 weeks. Notice that they always correspond to SPY selloffs.


Here you can see that when volume spikes, so does VIX. We are currently in the midst of a big volume spike and VXX has ramped up from a low of $17 to $21.35. Studying recent volume spikes, it looks like we still have some room to run.

In the Trade Report, we are currently up 10 percent, as we entered VXX at $19.30 and are still holding. Once the spike is over, we will reverse and "short" VIX using invese ETF XIV.

Watch this short video on trading VIX during volatile markets and using pair trading with VIX as a strategy to profit without knowing which direction the market will move. If you like the video, please hit like on the youtube clip!

https://youtu.be/avpW0l1NhMU

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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up for a 14 day free trial at BullsonWallStreet.com.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Example of a Winning Trade and Smart Risk Management: SHAK

We have been talking a lot about risk management and how it relates to being a successful trader.  In fact, three of the first five trading quotes in the 100 trading quotes series related to risk management. This should clue you in on how important I believe risk management is to winning as a trader.

My latest BOW winning trade, SHAK, is a great example of applying risk management. A range had developed in the stock's setup that allowed me to enter at $45.92 with a stop under the $45 level.  I was risking $1.

My target was $50.50, which means I was risking $1 in order to make $4.58.  That gave me a fantastic 4.5:1 reward to risk ratio.

How does this impact my trading over the long term? If I were to have an average 50% win rate with this setup over 100 trades with a 500 share position size, I would make $89,500 over the course of those 100 trades.

Do you see the power of risk management?

This exercise shows that you can become a superstar trader even if  your stock picking ability is basically as random as flipping a coin.

The takeaway from this example and exercise is that you should spend as much time studying the risk management aspects of the setup as the pattern of the setup itself.
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Friday, March 13, 2015

100 Trading Quotes To Put Into Action And Change Your Life: Machiavelli On Risk Management



The greatest boxer of our time can't punch worth a lick. So why is Floyd Mayweather one of the greatest boxers of all time?

It is because he is a defensive prodigy. He protects himself. The man is a risk management wizard.

Even the most aggressive leaders understand that you can not go haphazardly into battle with your guns blazing. Before going on the offensive, you must protect yourself. Master strategist Niccolo Machiavelli gave us the following trading quote because he knew that the best offense is a great defense:

Men rise from one ambition to another: first they seek to secure themselves against attack, and then they attack others.

Machiavelli and Mayweather lived by these words, and so should a winning trader. As traders we must protect our capital from those trying as hard as they can to take it away from us.

How do we protect our trading capital? It's actually quite easy if you stick to these rules:

     Always enter a trade with a game plan. I know my entry level, target and stop before entering every trade.
 
     Adhere to strict risk management rules. The amount you risk should always give you a 1:2 ratio in relation to your potential gain.

     Religiously cut losses and let winners ride. Don't settle for small wins and big losses.

     Always seek value when entering a position. Do not chase entries and enter as close to support levels as possible.

     Never risk more than 2 percent of your account on any give trade. Go big or go home does not apply to traders.

When I analyze a setup, before I even consider the target and potential profit, I scrutinize how much I can lose. This is the opposite of what most amateur traders do, and is the biggest reason most traders lose money.

Never forget Machiavelli's trading quote: protect, then attack.

The 100 Quotes To Put Into Action and Change Your Life Series:

Quote 1: Nehru on Caution as Risk

Quote 2: Bruce Lee on Creating Opportunity

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Monday, March 09, 2015

100 Trading Quotes To Put Into Action And Change Your Life: Caution Is A Risk



The first quote in the "100 trading quotes to put into action and change your life series" speaks to a specific trader type.  When thinking about risk, we often think of the trader who is impulsive, trigger happy and position sizes much too aggressively.  However, there is another type of risk of which former Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru spoke:

The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.

Let that sink in for a moment.

We generally become conservative to combat risk.  As traders we become overly cautious, decreasing position size, holding out for better trades, sometimes passing on a trade because it is not the perfect setup.  We may use analysis by paralysis taking into account factors that end up having little to do with the setup to justify not taking a trade.

Many traders are proud of themselves when they trade like this. They feel like they've accomplished something by not losing any money.  Well I've got news for these guys.  They will never become anything more than an average "keep up with the market" trader.

Is that why you trade, to keep up with or slightly beat the market?  If so, stop analyzing the markets and just park your money in an ETF.  If you are reading my work, I expect you to kill the market.  You had better expect to make 20-100 percent gains even in down markets.

Now am I saying to throw caution to the wind and trade like a maniac in order to capture big gains?  I think you know my answer.  No, I am not saying that.

Instead, you must trade intelligently aggressive.  When an opportunity arises, you take your shot and make it count. You strike right away and get bigger with your position sizing.  Knowing when to do this comes from careful analysis and stalking of the right opportunities, when "preparation meets opportunity" (this Seneca quote will be one of the "100 quotes later on in the series).

If you are not prepared, you will freeze up.  You will become conservative, cautious and pat yourself on the back for not taking the risk.  Don't be that guy (or gal).

We are winning traders that gameplan, stalk opportunities and strike when the time is right.  We go big, but do so intelligently, still managing risk and strategically managing the trade so it does not hurt too much if wrong.  That's how every successful trader trades.

If you want to be successful, remember that being overly cautious is an "opportunity lost" risk that will keep you from your trading dreams.

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Monday, February 02, 2015

The $10,000 question: Why traders are hypocrites about trading goals and blow up their accounts


Most traders blow up their initial trading stake.  Destroying that first trading account is a right of passage that every successful trader goes through, but few admit to doing.  I don't mind that it happened to me.  I embrace it, I wear it on my sleeve.  In fact, when I was starting out as a brash young punk thinking I could mint money, I blew up two accounts.  Trust me when I tell you that demolishing two accounts has a way of sobering you up real quick.  I decided that I had to figure out what I was doing wrong.

This is when the light bulb went on for me.  I had my aha moment after I actually sat down to review my trades (as suggested in a $60 trading book that offered little else, but was still worth the money for that one piece of advice).  What I discovered was that I was a good stock picker.  I was hitting on 70 percent of my trades, but there was always that one trade that would kill me.  I had no concept of position size yet, or risk management, but on this day I started a journey that lead me to the holy grail of trading. 

Today I talk to tons of traders, and inevitably we talk about trading goals.  These days there is more information out there and most beginning traders have some idea of position sizing, so the goal always starts out sober.  It goes something like this:

Just like you Paul, I'll start with a small 5-10K stake, and consistently build it up to $100,000 in a few years.  I will keep position size small and only risk 1 percent per trade.  As it gets bigger I'll get even more conservative.  

It all sounds so good.  The problem is, that is not what we really want.  What we really want is to hit the lotto and get lucky with one or two stocks that change our lives.  We tell ourselves we will do it the "right way", but really we just want to get there as fast as possible.   

That's why just about every trader that says they will do it the right way ends up doing every thing wrong.  They make bigger bets than their account can handle.  In the beginning they might even get lucky, but greed takes over and they get even bigger.  Whereas they were supposed to start trading more conservatively, they make even bigger bets.  Eventually one of those big bets fails.  Then they make another one that fails.  Now, instead of sobering up and building slowly, they try to win those losses back.  That is the beginning of the end.  

This scenario is all too commonplace.  I know because I have had conversations similar to this one more times than I can remember:

Stressed Trader: Paul, I screwed up big time and need your advice.

Paul: You did not just blow up your trading account again, did you?  

ST:  No Paul, I didn't, but it's now half the size, so I'm going to start trading bigger.  

P: Oh, so you are asking me the fastest way to blow up your account, eh?   

ST:  Quit messing with me Paul, I've only got $5,000 left to trade and I need to make back my money fast.

P: Do you remember what you told me when you started with 10K?

ST:  Yes, but I need to make it back and then I'll go back to trading the "right way".

P: I can't help you son, you are going to blow up your account, and you will learn from it.  Come back to me when you have another stake.

Now guys and gals, if you are ever caught in this situation and feel the urge to get bigger:

DON"T DO IT!

I feel this kid's pain.  I have been there.  I know what it's like, but I also know I never want to feel like that again.  The average retail investor starts with around $10,000, and the prevailing wisdom is that 95 percent of traders fail.  Why do they fail?

It's because they are lying to themselves.  They don't want to incrementally grow their account.  They want it all now.  Be honest with yourself and ADMIT IT!  

Now once you admit it, sober up and fix your brain.  You know you have a better chance getting hot at a blackjack table in Vegas than getting lucky trading.  To succeed at trading, you know luck is not an option.  You must fix your mental trading game.

I know what's coming.  All right Mr. Market Speculator, that all sounds good, but how do I do that?  

I'll admit it take more than what I can write in one blogpost.  It takes hours of dedicated training.  However, you can start by:

1.  Always having a game plan for every trade

2.  Have automated rules in place for position sizing

3.  Never risking more than 1 percent on any single trade

4.  When you feel the urge (and it will hit you from time to time), dedicate yourself to a battle of mental warfare with yourself.  The evolved, intelligent, emotionally sound you needs to beat the crap out of the greedy neanderthal dreaming of a big payday. 



I know this sounds like a bit much, "battling yourself with a war in your head".  Trust me, I've read all the self help NONSENSE.  I do not want you to become a self help junkie.  That just becomes another headache in and of itself.  Nor do I want you to create a ton of complicated rules.  Just get in your head and beat the greed out.  It's that simple.

Once you have won a few battles, it gets easier to fight your true nature.  A feedback loop will form a HABIT and at some point you will no longer be a hypocrite.  You actually will want to build it the right way and the thought of taking on too much risk will make you sick.  

Finally, once you start analyzing your trades with a focus on risk and position size instead of stock picking, that when you know you have achieved true TRADING ZEN.

If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis,setups and trade alerts, sign up for a 14 day free trial at BullsonWallStreet.com.  

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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

The One True Golden Rule of Stock Trading: Smart Risk Management

I became a successful stock trader once I focused on managing risk instead of a stock picking.  Risk management is the golden rule of stock trading.  As George Soros said, "It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you're wrong." 

I took these words to heart.  I will not trade a stock unless I have a  2:1 risk ratio.  What this means is if I risk one dollar, I must have a reward of at least two dollars or I do not take the trade.  In other words, if I buy a stock at $100, and my stop is at $98, my target must be at least $104.  

My trade results back the benefit of smart risk management.  Members of my nightly Trade Report receive an alert every time I enter or exit a trade.  Since the Report started on May 13, I have made 14 trades.  My win rate is exactly 50 percent.  You would expect that I am breaking even, right?  Wrong. I am up $7,543 in just over a month (and that does not include the +$4000 YELP trade, which I am still holding).  My average win is +$1628 while my average loss is only -550. I am getting 3:1 on my trades.  

How did I get these results?  By having a plan before entering the trade and making sure I always have at least a 2:1 risk ratio before entering a trade.  It's all about risk management, the one true golden rule.




What is your Golden Rule?  I want you to share in the comments below.  

If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up for a 7 day free trial at BullsonWallStreet.com.  

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