Bad Information Leads To Bad Trades

Most of the trading content you read on social media is garbage. Sure some blogs are good, but most are bad. Yes some tweets are mind-bending, but most are worthless.

You know this and have an inkling of what is good and what is garbage. The problem is it all goes in your head, stays there and mucks with your emotions.

Pretty soon you are no longer patiently waiting for setups. All that bad information that you can not unlearn mucks with your analysis and your emotions, and a bad trade is made.

Bad information leads to bad trades.

Create process that lead to good information. Good information pays it forward to good trades.

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The Shocking Way That Winning Trades Blow Up Trading Accounts

You may have just crushed it with your biggest winning trade of the year, but you still do not know how to trade.

That rush your feeling means it was a bad trade.  Good trades are not exciting. If this trade was your biggest win of the year, you probably committed a cardinal trading sin.

A few big wins doesn't make you a big elephant

Common big win trading mistakes (and their mental trigger) include:

1. Taking on too much risk (greed).
2. Gambling by holding through earnings (FOMO-fear).
3. Traded too big for your account size (greed).
4. Piggybacking somebody else's trade without understanding the trade (fear and greed). 

There are many more trading leaks but these are the ones I see my students make over and over again.

There's a pattern at work here that ultimately leads you to blow up your account. Trust me I know because I have done it twice (see my story and listen to there interviews here and here).

The patterns goes a little something like this.

Fledgling trader (actually I also see way too many seasoned pros do this too) gets an idea from a member of the twitterati. Her rules allow here to risk up to 1 percent of her account, but this trade looks too good and she envisions the big gain. She uses all of her 25K account for this one trade and ends up risking 10%.

Earnings are three days away and again she imagines blow out earnings. While her rules tell her to get out of the trade before earnings, she fears missing out and gambles the entire position.

The trade worked and her account is now at 33K. She does this 10 more times and after a wild ride she's doubled up to 50K.

You think you are the shit. Best damn trader this side of Wall Street.

Thoughts of quitting your job fill your head. The two week notice is ready and your playlist has "take this job and shove it" on loop.

As any degenerate gambler knows, eventually your luck will run out.

You WILL blow up your account.

You do not know how to trade.

Before that happens get your stuff together and learn.

I'm here to help.

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How to trade the news with this top secret foolproof plan

Looking back, Brexit was a big deal. Definitely the biggest deal since the banks collapsed in 2008. Think about it. The 5th largest economy in the world left the European Union. What the heck is Google, Amazon and Netflix going to do now?

The stock market guru's over on CNBC told us to pull our money out of the market right now. It's going to be financial armageddon.

Now that it is two weeks after Brexit let's take score of just how far we have tanked.

The S&P 500 is down a whopping . . .er . . .what . . .wait a minute. This can't be right. TC2000 tells me the market closed higher than it's pre-Brexit level. This must be a malfunction in the software. Let's head on over to stockcharts.com and get the right data. Nope, not working either. Let's head on over to . . . .

Ten more sites confirm that the market closed higher than it's pre-Brexit levels.

The sky is not falling.

This does not make sense. I read all the headlines, attended global economic seminar and a book on the European Union. This news was supposed to make the market tank!

Where did I go wrong, and what is the lesson from all this?

Okay, here it is (I am giving this to you for FREE).

A foolproof plan to effectively trade the news.

Wait for it . . .

Follow the price action to the news, and not the media/pundit overreaction to it.

If you are trading without an edge, let me know how I can help you. We'll talk about the BOW Swing Service(up 30%+ in a tough 2016 market) and free educational posts and videos, personal one-on-one mentoring or just shoot the breeze and get you pointed in the right direction.

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The 7 Words You Must Tell Yourself Every Morning

I was once a gambler, but now a trader.

I once blew up a 200k account within a matter of weeks. Up until that point, I thought I was a trader. I opened up a trading account during the last stages of the roaring 90s internet boom. For a while things were great. So great that I almost left graduate school at 23 and did move into a high rise penthouse apartment foolishly thinking that after a few months I had made it as a trader.

Morning rituals are said to lead to success. Here was mine:

I'd get up 10 minutes before the market open. Maybe brush my teeth but definitely turn on CNBC. Grab a napkin or whatever else there was to write on and jot down whatever stocks they were talking about. That was the day's trading list and I'd jump in and out of stocks from these "well researched" lists. Depending on my gut feel, sometimes I'd be out in a few minutes, sometimes a few weeks.

Rule number one in my foolproof plan was to always hold when a stock tanked, because stocks always bounce back quickly no matter what! It wasn't until a little bit later that I'd find out this rule only applied in the wacky internet boom.

Some days I'd lose a little, some days a lot. Other days I would make insane percentage gains. At the time I didn't realize doubling up the trading stack in one week was not normal. In just a few months the minuscule 5K stake had turned to $200,000 and I was living large.

Until I wasn't.

In a few weeks it was all gone, along with my dreams. My dad, who has taught me more life lessons that I can count (like when he hit the 9 year old me with a baseball), told me something I'll never forget.

Go to a casino son because you are not investing, you are gambling.

There is a fine line between investing, trading and gambling. Investors search for value. Traders search for momentum. Gamblers hope to get lucky and search for the next fix.

I was once a gambler.

Over fifteen years later, my morning ritual has changed. I now get up at 4:30 am sharp. I meditate, exercise, read and listen to a little sports talk radio before I get my work day started. Once I am ready to start my research before the trading day begins, I say the following 7 words:

Trading without a strategic edge is gambling.

This sentence has become part of my morning ritual. A habit. It has kept me from making god knows how many bad trades.

Now the fix is not the trade, but the search for the edge before the trade. I no longer allow the emotions of a degenerate, namely fear and greed, to guide me. No more micro-managing and fear-of-missing-out. All because of 7 simple words.

If you are trading without an edge, let me know how I can help you. We'll talk about the BOW Swing Service (up 30%+ in a tough 2016 market) and free educational posts and videos, personal one-on-one mentoring or just shoot the breeze and get you pointed in the right direction.

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It's the small wins that hurt

This is what holds many traders back.

The small wins.

Yet we love to take those small wins, and avoid small meaningless losses like the plague.

We are afraid of losses. It doesn't matter it it is big or small, that L is scary.

It's all about the fear of the loss.

Here is the rub: the fear of the loss is always worse than the loss itself.

Losses don't hurt as bad as you think.

Remember what it was like getting a shot when you were 10 years old? That drive to the doctor was terrifying. But then you turn your head, feel that little jab, and it's over and you wonder what you were so scared about.

Trading losses are the same.

Not only are losses not so bad, but often it means you are trading correctly.

I embrace small losses.

The reason is small losses combined with big wins means you are doing something right. On the other hand, small wins mean you are doing something wrong.

It's the small wins that hurt.

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Don't choose unhappiness over uncertainty

It's a flaw in our brilliant minds and one that afflicts most traders. It's a big reason why 90 percent of traders fail.

I'm watching one of my students trade a few weeks ago and he keeps taking these ridiculously small wins. Over and over again, he takes these small .3R gains only to watch the stock run without him. I don't say a word and just watch.

He is in agony.

I mean it looks like he has literally been slapped in the face. Finally I ask him why he keeps taking these small losses.

His response is priceless (actually it's costly):

I don't know what is going to happen so I'm protecting my profit.

And there you have it.

We are wired to choose unhappiness over uncertainty.

This novice trader knows he can't succeed continually taking these small wins since two regular size losses will wipe them all out. That's why he's unhappy about it. Yet he can't control himself.

He's inflicted with the uncertainty disease, feeling more discomfort with uncertainty than unhappiness.

Fight your programming and embrace uncertainty.

It's the only way you succeed.

Uncertainty is the way.

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Subtract Your Way To Trading Success

Swing Trading Master

So you know about swing trading breakouts . . . fantastic. You can make a lot of money trading those.

So you know about stochastics . . . that's great. Extreme conditions lead to extreme profits.

So you trading using Fibonacci retracements . . . awesome. I know a guy who makes a killing off this mysterious phenomena.

So you know about trading options . . . brilliant. There are some rich options traders.

So you know how to trade divergences . . . excellent. In 2008 this style was a personal gold mine.

So you know how to trade multiple timeframes . . . magnificent. My buddy kills it by looking at three different time frame charts.

So you know how to use Level 2 . . .superb. Lots of money can be made gaming the algos.

So you know how to trade breakouts using options when stochastics are oversold, while analyzing Fibonacci retracement levels when there is a divergence, everything aligns on multiple timeframes and level 2 shows support.

WTF?

You know a lot of things, but you don't know anything.

Master a few things by subtracting your way to success.

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Define yourself as a trader

We can choose to define ourselves as traders by the trades we take.

This is not about the money we make.

Rather it's the place within the setup that we enter.

Do you require more confirmation, content to give up some gain in exchange for safety?

Or do you jump in early, aggressively jumping in pre-breakout in order to maximize every inch of the trade?

One is not better than the other.

However, you must know which type of trader you are and adjust your trading style, risk management and expectations accordingly.

Define yourself as a trader.

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Prepare for the worst and the worst Martin Shkeli joke you ever heard

Martin: I have a horrible migraine. Prison guard: A bottle of Advil is $750,000

It's easy to lose sight of the dangers of trading when things are going well. A few good trades and you are invincible.

But it only takes one bad trade to wipe all the profit away.

Anybody remember KBIO?

A novice trader shorted the $2 stock. The next day it gapped up eight hundred percent. His account went from plus $36,000 to -$107,000 in one night. 

In twenty-four hours his life changed to the point of cowardly begging for money on social media.

He should have planned like a stoic and practiced premeditatio malorum, translated as a premeditation of evils.

In other words, prepare for the worst.

If the above mentioned KBIO trader had planned like a stoic, he probably would not have taken that trade or he'd have at least position sized in a way that protected his account. 

I know what you are thinking: that's quite the negative attitude. 

Living as a stoic does not mean you are a negative person.

Think positively but prepare for the worst while planning for success.

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Trading Meditation: Is It Your Head or Your Trading?

There is is nothing wrong with your mental game. Your head is fine and there is no need to go to a trading psychologist.

You have got it all wrong.

It's not that you don't know how to control your emotions, it's just that you don't know how to - how should I put this - you do not know how to trade.

I know, the truth hurts.

It's a lot easier to blame your head because that does not invalidate your trading ability. So you become a self help junkie, wasting valuable time "working on yourself" when you should be working on your trading.

That is not to say that there is no value in working on you mental trading game. It's just that before you do, make sure it's not the fundamentals of your trading that need fixing.

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Trading Meditation: Perception Is Nothing But Fiction

Fact: Perception is fictional.

You never see full reality, only what your brain wants you to see. Basically, your brain is lying to you every second of every minute of every day.

Are you a contrarian?

Then that opening gap looks like a slam dunk parabolic short.

Do you like to go with the flow?

Then that same breakout is a trend following set up.

Perception is not necessarily a bad thing, if you know how to use it. The problem is most traders don't.

Study your trades and let your research be guided by what perception tells you are your brain's expectations. Only now let facts help you see reality.

If you find that you've shorted most breakouts, your expectation is that of a contrarian.

Use this.

Rigorously analyze the setup until you have all the facts you need to trade it. At this point don't let facts, rather than perception, guide you and systematically formulate a setup.

You have not created rules that remove the brain's filter on reality.

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Trading Meditation: Uncertainty Is The Way

Certainty is a problem for traders.

They want the answer to the question, "What will the market do".

I do not know.

Does that make me an idiot? 

No, it makes me smart.

I know that I do not know, and I accept it. I know that I am not in control, only the market is.

Because I know this, I trade the right way.

Certainty causes traders to hold on to bad positions, because they know they are right. It causes them to throw out stops and take big losses.

I know that I am wrong, a lot. 

For this reason, I cut losers and keep losses small.

I know that I do not know.

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Trading Meditation: Taking Small Losses Is Not So Bad

It hurt bad, yet it wasn't so bad.

Once when I was 9 years old my dad hit me with 10 straight pitches in a row.

This was after I kept jumping out of the batters box while Pablo fired off 3 strikes right down the middle of the plate. Pablo was a giant of a nine year old and threw pitches that had to be shot out of a cannon. I was scared every time he looked at me and wound up, so I'd start moving away from the plate before the ball even left his hand.

I could sense that my old man was embarrassed.

After the game, there was silence for most of the walk home. Before we got into the house, he told me "it's not so bad".

Huh?

Really, it is not so bad. I'll show you tomorrow.

The next morning Dad took me into the backyard, put a bat in my hand and proceeded to hit me with 10 straight pitches.

I cried.

I told him he was a crazy old Indian that didn't know anything about baseball.

Dad laughed, waited for 10 minutes and let me settle down before we went back into the house. Then he asked me how bad it hurt.

Not so bad.

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Trading Meditation: The Early Bird Gets The Profits

Hesitation gets you nowhere. It is linked to fear and fear guides traders to the poor house.

But Paul, I want confirmation.

No, you are just afraid. So you wait. For the safety of the move.

Seeing the stock move feels safe. So you act. And now you lose.

That is because once the move comes, once you feel safe, the trade is almost over. You enter at the worst time.

You are in "no man's land" caught in between support and resistance levels.

You'll either make a small profit, or take a big loss. Or a lot of small losses. All of these are negative outcomes in this case because the big wins will rarely come, since you gave up so much waiting for confirmation.

Do not hesitate. Previous encounters with the pattern have already confirmed you have an edge. Enter at the exact moment pattern recognition give you the signal.

Be decisive.

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Trading Meditation: Be The Wolf, Not A Sheep

If every trader is doing the same thing, how does anybody make money?

Trading is a zero sum game. Somebody wins, somebody loses. And the split is not 50/50.

It is more like 10/90. For those who are making significant percentage gains, it's more like 5/95.

To the few victors goes most of the spoils.

You do not want to be the "ninety-five".

You want to be the "five".

Do not follow the crowd. That's where fear and greed reign supreme. That's where the sheep graze. It's where panic and euphoria take control.

The crowd is the 95 that lose.

Think differently. Always ask yourself what everybody else is doing. Then figure out how to game the group.

Be the wolf, not the sheep.

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Trading Meditation: How to tell if it's intuition or guessing

Intuition is a swing trader's best friend. When we intuit it seems as though there is no conscious reasoning. To the outsider it seems like guessing.

In reality it is a function of the mind that glimpses greater knowledge through experience and pattern recognition.

Traders often confuse intuition with guessing. Some call a guess that results in a successful trade intuition. This type of results oriented analysis is fatal.

Intuition is not a gamble. It is based on matching patterns that lead to an edge in probability.

So how do you tell if your "gut" feel is intuition or guessing? By definition, there is no objective measure to identify intuition since the process is unknown to the thinker.

I pay attention to my base emotions, which often manifest physically. If I feel my heart rate increase or my stress levels intensify I know I am guessing. I am ready to get my gamble on. I trust my intuition if I feel calm and confident, locked in the "zone".

It comes down to knowing yourself.

Great traders know when to trust their gut.

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Trading secret for those unwilling to understand that they can not predict the future

Traders know less about the future than they think they do. And if the trader knows she does not know, she thinks someone else does.

It's why you hang onto every word of woefully inaccurate CNBC pundits. It's why you love and hate Cramer. It's why you follow 3654 members of the Twitterati.

Sadly, it's why you risk too much. It's why you put all of our eggs in one basket. It's why you won't get rid of that losing position. It's why you do not cut your losses. You don't like the idea that you do not know what will happen. 

The one percenter understands. She knows that she does not know. Rather than trying to predict, she reacts. She understand probability. She understands risk.

I am the exception. That is why I have a trading service on Bullsonwallstreet.com. I have a crystal ball.

Okay, so I can not predict the future. However I still make money trading stocks because I know that I do not know.

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9 Steps to Making Your 2016 Trading Goals Stick

The new year is always a good time to hit the reset button and create new trading goals for the coming year. Most traders set fantastic goals, but few actually achieve them. In fact, after a month or two, most don't even think about their 2016 goals because most have already become impossible to achieve. 

Let's fix that. Here is how we set our 2016 trading goals to guarantee success.

1. Call them goals, not resolutions.

A resolution is an intention to do something. Basically you are saying you will start something. I am going to start exercising is a resolution.

We want to move from intention to action. A goal is more specific because we focus on the process and end result. You do not merely say you will exercise in 2016, you get more specific and say I will lose 20 pounds. The intention is no longer open ended. You have something specific to work toward.

2. Say "I will" or "I am"

Language is important. It sets the tone and puts us in the right frame of mind. If you say "I plan to lose 20 pounds", it's something you do in the future. If you say "I will lose 20 pounds", you are demanding you complete the task. Even better, if you say "I am losing 20 pounds", you are already in the act of accomplishing the goal, there is nothing to start.

3. Create specific actions.

Frame the goal with specific actions, not just the goal itself. For example, after stating that you will lose 20 pounds, be specific in how you will achieve that goal. I will lose 20 pounds by cutting out sugar, running 4 miles 5 times per week, sleeping 8 hours per day and drinking more water. These are specific actions that give you a road map for how to achieve your goal.

4. Focus on mastery

You will not accomplish your goal with a superficial understanding of what it takes to achieve the goal. All top performers gain mastery of what they are trying to achieve. If your goal is to lose 20 pounds, you must master nutrition and exercise with a deep understanding of the subject matter.

5. Focus on the Few

Less is better. You can not master many things. Take a few things and learn them inside and out. Once you achieve mastery of one or two things, only then move on to something else.

6. Act on your Goals

We spend a lot of time coming up with fantastic goals and dreaming of achievement. Few act and even fewer continue to act once they start. Take that first step and do not put it off. Once you take that first step, keep taking steps until the goal is met.

7. Change Your Habits

The goal must become a part of your life. You eat, you breathe and you accomplish your goals. Work hard at creating habits that make your goals routine.

8. Persevere

Most people quit after the first set back. Those that achieve their goals push through the inevitable first set back. They don't give up. If you gain two pounds, regroup and get back to doing what you need to do to achieve your goal.

8. Review and Analyze Weekly

Your goals need to be your number 1 priority. Reviewing your goals every week does two things. First, it makes sure they remain a priority and keeps you from slacking. Second, it helps you figure out what is working and what isn't. I have my calendar set every Saturday morning for in depth goal review.

Following these 8 steps puts you in the position to achieve your 2016 goals. In the next blogpost I will layout my 2016 trading goals.

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How to Embrace Your Fear in Trading: The Trading Intelligentsia Has it Wrong

Most trader's and coaches think of emotion as if it is trading kryptonite. The worst of these emotions is thought to be fear.

If you Google "fear" and "trading" you will see a host of "how to overcome fear in trading" articles. No disrespect to those authors, but they are worthless. Don't read them. Every one of these articles misses the point.

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Fear in trading is a good thing. It is an emotion that is telling you something. To a trader it is warning that "something is wrong here. Past experience and pattern recognition is a signal that I need to adapt my strategy." 

Why would you want to overcome this legitimate warning signal? Ignoring your emotion and sticking with the plan is a likely bad move. Rather than overcoming this vital emotion, embrace your fear and investigate why the sirens are going off in your head.

The 3 Step Process Embracing Fear

When fear grips me during a trade, I analyze the situation using a  3 step process:

1. I ask myself why I am scared. I review the setup, patterns, risk parameters, position sizing and market conditions. If something has fundamentally changed in any of these factors, I reassess the trade. 
2. If I can't find anything wrong with the trade, I think back to the last time few times I felt this way. Was there a common theme. Did something significant happen in those trades, or was my fear ultimately misguided?
3. If I still can't come up with anything, I look inward. This is where self actualization comes into play. I try to take a step back and "watch the watcher". Is this emotion based on flawed perceptions? Are there factors outside trading making me feel this way? Am I focusing too much on recent profits and losses rather than the trade? 

If my perceptions are flawed or the fear is based on my own mental anxiety rather than a change in trade conditions, I make no trade adjustment and come up with a plan to work on myself.

After this three stop process, a plan is in place to fix the trade or the trader. By doing so, I end up becoming a better trader. This is accomplished not by overcoming my fear, but by embracing it. 

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How's Microsoft Doing?

My friend asked me how Microsoft is doing at a dinner party. This is how our real conversation went last night:

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Friend: How is Microsoft doing?
Me: I don't know.
Friend: Don't you trade stocks?
Me: Yes.
Friend: Then how do you not know how Microsoft is doing?
Me: I haven't traded Microsoft in years.
Friend: Why? It's one of the biggest companies.
Me: It's too big and not volatile enough for me to trade.
Friend: Have you been following what's happening in Greece.
Me: A little.
Friend: So what's going on?
Me: There's a debt crisis, the economy is bad. They could default.
Friend: Deep analysis bro.
Me: All I care about is how the markets react to Greece. I don't care too much about the details. I'm not an economist.
Friend: Okay, if you say so. You may want to start looking for a day job again.
Me: And you might want to give your portfolio to someone who knows what he's doing.
Friend: Yeah, I'm just now starting to recover from my big losses.
Me: Your porfolio manager knows a lot about economics, huh.
Friend: Yup.

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