Trades and Vanity Performance Stats

I sold 1000 shares of QID at an average price of $53.86 (entry at $55.50) for a $1640 loss (-2.9%).

I covered 200 shares of AAPL at $92.05 (short at $90.10) for a $395 loss (-2.1%).

I covered 500 shares of STLD at $41.08 (short at $39.08) for a $1000 loss (-5.1%).

I sold 200 shares of VLO at $61.87 (entry at $60.24) for a $326 gain (+2.7%).

I bought 500 shares of CELG at $53.24.

I bought 1000 shares of VDSI at $17.67.

I bought 1000 shares of SMSI at $15.96.

I hope to detail the three current trades tomorrow with charts.

When I got home I was feeling depressed about the today's losses. One of my trading buddies helped put things in perspective by telling me to take a look at all of the trades I had made leading up to today. So I did :) I've compiled some vanity stats to help pick me up.

Since the February 27 sell off, I have made 24 trades (excluding the three trades I made today that I am still holding). Here is how I did:

• Win Rate: 71% (17/24)
• Total Gains: $13,962
• Average Gain: $821
• 
  
• Loss Rate: 29% (7/24)
• Total Losses: $4,029
• Average Loss: $575
• 
  
• Total Gross Profits: $9,933
• Profit After Commissions: $9,597

In 23 days, I made $9,597 as a part-time trader. Meanwhile, I made $5600 as a full-time worker. Trading Rocks!

Okay, I feel better now. Feel free to curse and throw tomatoes at the screen in disgust over my vane behavior.

To review all of my trades, go to the "Trade" label below.

Trade Updates: QID, VLO, HAL, LEH, STLD, AAPL

I was stopped out of my 350 share position of HAL at $30.44 for a $388 loss (-3.7%).

I sold 350 shares LEH at $72.71 for a $231 gain (.9%). The total gain for the 700 share position was $696 (+1.4%). I was hoping for a bigger gain, and decided to bail on the trade because I think the bounce might be over.

I bought 500 shares of QID at $54.46. I've been waiting for QID to near support. Let's see if it holds.

Along with the QID position above, I am also long 200 shares of VLO, 500 more shares of QID, short 200 shares AAPL and short 500 shares STLD.

Monday's Gameplan and a Look at Some Energy Plays

Not much has changed for me heading into this week. I still plan to short strength and cover weakness. Much of the market is looking oversold, so I won't initiate anymore shorts until I see a decent sized bounce.

I am interested in watching for longs in energy, especially oil drillers and refiners. I still have a long position in HAL, and will be looking to buy VLO if it tags it's 20 day moving average.

I will also keep a close eye on XLE, the energy ETF. It has tagged it's 200 day moving average and could put in a nice bounce.


Take a look at TSO. This oil driller has a really nice looking long setup, which has been a rarity in this market. I may buy a tag of the middle bollinger band.

Trade Update: QID, VLO, AAPL, SSRI, STLD

I sold 1000 shares of QID at $57.21 (entry at an average price of $55.55) for a $1660 gain (+3.0%).

I covered 500 shares of SSRI at $29.79 (entry at $32.24) for a $1225 gain (+8.1%).

Yesterday I went short 500 shares STLD at $39.08.

I am still long 200 shares VLO and short 200 shares of AAPL.

Today's bounce doesn't look like it will hold. I plan to establish more short positions on strength and buy more QID. As I stated before, I'll keep shorting strength and covering weakness until this simple strategy stops working.

Sorry for the late and sparse updates. I've been swamped both at home and work the past few days. I hope to post a ton of charts in the coming days.

Trades: AAPL and VLO

Today I shorted 200 shares of AAPL at $90.10. Sunday night's post explains the setup.

Yesterday I bought 400 shares of VLO at $60.24. I sold 200 shares today at $61.29 for a $210 gain (+1.7%), and am holding on to the remaining 200 shares. I'll post a chart later today.

I am looking to buy oil related on weakness and possibly short brokers such as GS and LEH.

Today's Trades: VLO and QID

I covered my 400 share position in VLO at $60.21 (entry at $59.06) for a $460 loss (-1.9%).

I bought 500 shares of QID at $55.23. I now have a 1000 share position in QID. Today's gap up has the look and feel of a "fade the gap" short squeeze type of rally. I doubt we will see a meaninful bounce. On the chance that there will be more strength in the coming days, I am setting a loose stop just under the 50 day MA, around $53. The next thrust down could come any day now, and I'd like to be in position when it happens.

Today's Trade; VLO and QID

I've traded these stocks so much that past few days, they feel like family. I bought 500 shares of QID at $55.86. I've been trading in 1000 share blocks, but I'm not sure that there won't be more of a bounce in the Q's, so I'm keeping the position size small. If we see QID drop down in the $54-55 range, I'll probably buy some more.

I've been trading VLO on the longside, as oil stocks have held up well over the past two weeks. However, today I went short on the big move up because it is moving right into resistance. Take a look at the resistance point on this chart:


I also noted that RSI and stochastics have dropped, creating a short term negative divergence.


I went short 400 shares of VLO at an average price of $59.06. While I never recommend that readers piggyback on my trades, I emphasize this point today. VLO has been acting strong, so this is a risky trade. I would not be surprised if the stock moves up. Therefore, I am using a hard stop above the $60 resistance level and going with a slightly smaller position size.

Trade carefully.

Losing My Flow and Today's Trades

I panicked. As I watched QID gap down this morning, I could feel myself losing my flow. All the Zen stuff I write about went out the window. As my highly developed flight reflex kicked in, Mister Self Awareness (that's me) was thinking like a four year old being chased by the boogie man. In the time it would take Bruce Lee to unleash a lightning quick combination of punches and kicks, I had pulled up my trading screen and was ready to click on the "sell" tab.

Then, for some reason, a moment of clarity came over me and I remembered something I had blogged about last month. Before placing a trade, I like to ask myself what an expert or someone I respect would think if he or she was watching me. I then imagined what you would think of me right now. I heard a voice say, "this guy's trading like a coward. I can't believe I read this damn fool." Feeling royally embarrassed, I took a step back and decided to wait for the expected bounce that I like to preach about. Of course, the bounce came, and I was able to unload my position for a small gain, in the process saving myself money and embarrassment. Thanks guys.

I sold 1000 shares of QID at $56.69 (entry at $56.50) for a $190 gain (+.33 gain).

I sold 300 shares of VLO at $57.22 (entry at $55.60) for a $486 gain (+2.9%).

I currently am 100% cash, although that could change soon. I may by QID on weakness.

Today's Trade: QID and VLO

I sold 1000 shares of QID at $57.98 (entry at average price of $55.23) for a $2750 gain (+5.0%). Over the weekend I placed a sell limit order at $57.50. My thinking was if the market opened weak, there would be a bounce later in the day where I could re-enter.

Everything went according to plan, and I bought 1000 shares of QID at $56.50.

As you can see from my QID trades over the past few days, I am selling spikes up and buying dips. In market terms, that means shorting into strength in the Nasdaq and covering on weakness.

I also bought 300 shares of VLO at $55.60. Take note of the small position size. The stock is not as strong as it was, but has entered an area of price support.

Today's Trades: VLO and QID

I sold 300 shares of VLO at $57.90 (entry at $56.90) for a $300 gain (+1.7%). I still like the stock, but in this market enviroment I'm going with shorter hold times and quick profits. I reserve the right to re-enter.

I bought another 500 shares of QID at $55.25. I wanted to enter this morning when the stock was trading around $55.65, but decided to place a limit order at $55.25. My thinking was that the bulls would mount a push that would likely fail. Luckily we had some weakness (or strength in the Q's), and I got in at $55.25.

So currently, my only position is 1000 shares of QID (2X short QQQQ).

Some Good Looking Charts (and a fight clip)

I haven't been able to find too many good looking charts on the long side. However, I do see a ton of nice looking charts for short setups that just need a little bigger bounce. Here are five stocks that look darn good in any market: SMSI, AKS, LDG, FDG and VLO.



For all you UFC fans, here is a preview of this Saturday's match between Randy Couture and Tim Sylvia. Party at the Spec's place!

Trade Update: QID, QID (not a typo) and VLO

I sold 1000 shares of QID at $56.55 (entry at $53.82) for a $2730 gain (+4.8 %). To be honest, I probably would have held on if it was not for the fact that I had a limit order in place overnight. So I re-entered a few minutes ago.

I bought 500 shares of QID at $55.21. I still think the market has more downside momentum.

I sold 300 shares of RL at $85.45 (entry at $87.10) for a loss of $495 (-1.8%). So much for retail holding up.

I bought 300 shares of VLO at $56.90. My reasons are two fold. First, as a small hedge agaist my shorts. Second, I like the way oil services stocks have held up. If you look at VLO's chart, it looks like a typical pullback after a runup, which is opposite of the plethora of charts that look downright ugly.



Currently my only positions are QID and VLO. This week, I have incurred $3541 in losses and $5675 gains for a total gain of $2134.

I'm thankful that I made it out alive (so far). However, there should me more tough trading days ahead. It's not the time to take big risks or become complacent.

Trade updates: QID, STLD, GS, VLO, EWZ

Man, I'm kicking myself for getting rid of QID yesterday! Stupid, stupid, stupid! I hate myself right now. I should have let the trade play out until it hit my target or stop. Micro-managing at its worst.

I'm holding on to most of my positions right now, and actually made a few buys. I bought 50 more GS at $208.16 and 300 STLD at $37.55. I also bought 300 shares of VLO at $58.04 and 200 shares of EWZ at $46.55. For now I am holding on to RL.

Note that I am using smaller position sizes. The prudent move right now is to wait this thing out, so if you're going to buy, be very careful. I'm not giving myself much rope on these trades and will clear out my positions if they fall much further.

It will take some time to see whether this is just a hiccup or a new trend. If we get a weak bounce or more weakness in the coming days, it will be a sign to get ready to short.