The time has come to head to the the 21st century and move my site off blogger: www.PaulJSingh.com. That's right, it's a .com now!
I would have loved to keep "themarketspeculator" handle, but unfortunately some imitator has it. Ugh! First world problems I guess . . .
So now we go by my full name: Paul J Singh (www.pauljsingh.com).
Make sure to change how you follow me. At the site there will be an email list pop up. Make sure to add your email to the list so you continue to get me in your email whenever I post!
I've also started posting to instagram. Yes you get to see more of my pretty face here: https://www.instagram.com/therealpauljsingh/
Oh and I know you are already following me on youtube and twitter, right?
Right.
Monday, November 14, 2016
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Inaugural #AskPaulAnything Episode 1: Exits, Risk Management, Intraday and Deliberate Practice
In my inaugural episode of #AskPaulAnything, I talk about the the difficulty of stock trading exit strategy and how to simply the process, risk management, a fantastic intraday trade, deliberate trading practice for both newbie and experienced traders, how I use VWAP and more.
If you honestly don't learn at least one thing in this 14 minute episode, I will do 100 pushups!
Join me live for the second episode of #AskPaulAnything Sunday, November 13th at 5pm Pacific.
Join here (and subscribe): https://youtu.be/q2g4ni9UaPc
What would you like to know?
If you honestly don't learn at least one thing in this 14 minute episode, I will do 100 pushups!
Join me live for the second episode of #AskPaulAnything Sunday, November 13th at 5pm Pacific.
Join here (and subscribe): https://youtu.be/q2g4ni9UaPc
What would you like to know?
Monday, November 07, 2016
Bad Information Leads To Bad Trades
Most of the trading content you read on social media is garbage. Sure some blogs are good, but most are bad. Yes some tweets are mind-bending, but most are worthless.
You know this and have an inkling of what is good and what is garbage. The problem is it all goes in your head, stays there and mucks with your emotions.
Pretty soon you are no longer patiently waiting for setups. All that bad information that you can not unlearn mucks with your analysis and your emotions, and a bad trade is made.
Bad information leads to bad trades.
Create process that lead to good information. Good information pays it forward to good trades.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Tuesday, November 01, 2016
I Will Pass Out If Donald Trump Is Elected President
Donald Trump is bad for Wall Street.
He can't be controlled, he's a loose cannon, he has ties to the evil Russian empire, he bankrupted his own companies, he hates women, minorities and anybody else making money.
Yet I love him.
Well not him, but the idea of him winning the election. Now before you get ready to let me have a piece of your mind, take a step back and . . .
R-E-L-A-X.
It's not for political reasons, so don't hate.
As a swing trader, I love volatility.
Guess what happens if the Donald wins the election?
The market will go insane. Even more insane than the man with the bad hair could ever actually do to the market himself. The market tends to overreact to uncertainty, so you can bet we'll see an overreaction and some wild swings.
On the flip side, the market wants Hillary to win. She's the "safe" choice. If she wins, we probably get a nice little rally and then it's back to trading as usual. We can profit from this, but not like we can if the market is scared.
Up, down, all around . . . it doesn't matter. We don't care which way the market goes, as long as it moves, and moves big.
Make America great again? It already is great.
Make the market great again? The President does not have that power.
Make the trading great again? It will happen if Donald is President.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
When You Have Inside Information And Still Lose Trading Apple
I wish I had a best friend named Billy that worked at Apple.
I'd call him up and discreetly ask him in hushed tones:
"Yo Billy, what's going on with Apple's earnings?"
He'd hang up on me because everybody knows Apple taps employee phones. So I drive over to his house, we turn the speakers on full blast just like in any good conspiracy movie and he says:
"It's going to be big. I'm talking blow out earnings, huge iPhone 7 sales and increased guidance."
Holy smokes!
The stock is going to skyrocket, and I'm in the know just like the shady Wall Street CEOs.
I would load up with 10000 shares since this is a sure thing and I'd nail this one when the stock market opens tomorrow. In the meantime, I would head over to the Porsche dealership so I could spend my ill-gotten gains.
As Eminem would say, snap back to reality. Yes, Apple ($APPL) had blow out earnings yesterday, but . . .
At the open the stock is down four points off a "sell the good news" event. Dream scenario? Armed with insider information I would be down $40,000 right now.
Even with a crystal earnings ball you still could not have predicted this move. This is exactly why I rarely trade pre-earnings. Instead, I use a 7-setup post earnings-breakout strategy that allows me to play probabilities and patterns rather than gambling.
Today's lesson is to dream big, but trade smart, and never gamble on earnings.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
Secret Trading Leak: Your Winning Trades Will Crush You
What if I told you that your wins are your biggest trading problem?
That's right, wins are what hold average traders from moving past break even to profitability. Most traders focus on their losses, completely ignoring the real problem.
The hardest trading leaks to identify and correct are the one that masquerade as wins.
You see that 65% win rate and feel good about yourself, then wonder why you are not crushing it. So you review your past 100 trades and analyze every single loss in search of that trading leak that you'll correct, magically turning you into the second coming of Jesse Livermore.
Unfortunately that's not how it works, even though that's what just about everybody does (no wonder 95% of traders fail).
So you want to trade Jesse Livermore?
Then fix your wins.
Every losing or break even trader I've ever worked with made a fatal flaw: he or she did not know how to win. That 65% win rate is deceptive. It often means you are either micro-managing your positions by cutting your wins off early, or you are winning less than you risk, creating a negative reward to risk.
Now go back and analyze every single win and ask yourself these three questions:
1. Did I stick to my initial plan (assuming you had one)?
2. Are my wins bigger than my losses?
3. Did I exit at the right time?
If the answer to these questions is "no", then you've got some work to do.
You must figure out how to win big, even if that means lowering your win rate. Remember, winning traders care about profitability, not win rate.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
The Shocking Way That Winning Trades Blow Up Trading Accounts
You may have just crushed it with your biggest winning trade of the year, but you still do not know how to trade.
That rush your feeling means it was a bad trade. Good trades are not exciting. If this trade was your biggest win of the year, you probably committed a cardinal trading sin.
Common big win trading mistakes (and their mental trigger) include:
There's a pattern at work here that ultimately leads you to blow up your account. Trust me I know because I have done it twice (see my story and listen to there interviews here and here).
The patterns goes a little something like this.
Fledgling trader (actually I also see way too many seasoned pros do this too) gets an idea from a member of the twitterati. Her rules allow here to risk up to 1 percent of her account, but this trade looks too good and she envisions the big gain. She uses all of her 25K account for this one trade and ends up risking 10%.
Earnings are three days away and again she imagines blow out earnings. While her rules tell her to get out of the trade before earnings, she fears missing out and gambles the entire position.
The trade worked and her account is now at 33K. She does this 10 more times and after a wild ride she's doubled up to 50K.
You think you are the shit. Best damn trader this side of Wall Street.
Thoughts of quitting your job fill your head. The two week notice is ready and your playlist has "take this job and shove it" on loop.
As any degenerate gambler knows, eventually your luck will run out.
You WILL blow up your account.
You do not know how to trade.
Before that happens get your stuff together and learn.
I'm here to help.
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
That rush your feeling means it was a bad trade. Good trades are not exciting. If this trade was your biggest win of the year, you probably committed a cardinal trading sin.
 |
| A few big wins doesn't make you a big elephant |
- Taking on too much risk (greed).
- Gambling by holding through earnings (FOMO-fear).
- Traded too big for your account size (greed).
- Piggybacking somebody else's trade without understanding the trade (fear and greed).
There's a pattern at work here that ultimately leads you to blow up your account. Trust me I know because I have done it twice (see my story and listen to there interviews here and here).
The patterns goes a little something like this.
Fledgling trader (actually I also see way too many seasoned pros do this too) gets an idea from a member of the twitterati. Her rules allow here to risk up to 1 percent of her account, but this trade looks too good and she envisions the big gain. She uses all of her 25K account for this one trade and ends up risking 10%.
Earnings are three days away and again she imagines blow out earnings. While her rules tell her to get out of the trade before earnings, she fears missing out and gambles the entire position.
The trade worked and her account is now at 33K. She does this 10 more times and after a wild ride she's doubled up to 50K.
You think you are the shit. Best damn trader this side of Wall Street.
Thoughts of quitting your job fill your head. The two week notice is ready and your playlist has "take this job and shove it" on loop.
As any degenerate gambler knows, eventually your luck will run out.
You WILL blow up your account.
You do not know how to trade.
Before that happens get your stuff together and learn.
I'm here to help.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Market Speculator Weekend Review
Me, Myself and BullsonWallStreet
While the market consolidated for the 12th straight day by week's end, I took profits in 3 swing trade positions (LABU, AMBA, EXAS) and entered EXAS, FCX and UGLD. That's active for such a tight ranging week. Holdovers ERX and TWLO continue to churn. See Full Results (2016 +45%)
Over on the BOW blog, a review of the $LABU trade and the $4800 Gold trade.
Enlightening article in the Huffington Post about BOW and Kunal's development as a trader, "Entourage" lifestyle, hard work and our mentoring/trading relationship.
Day trades
Very active intraday trading week, as earnings season gives us plenty of gapper opportunities. My favorite trade was this $FCX pre-market trade.
Motivation
The one handed concert pianist will make you feel like you aren't doing enough!
Entertainment
I could have watched John Oliver and Jerry Seinfeld talk and make comedy for hours.
Sports
As Ichiro approached his milestone 3,000th hit, ESPN's feature highlights his pursuit of mastery though habits and routine that easily apply to trading.
Future
I expect a market breakout or breakdown this week, and have potential trades for either eventuality.
I am teaching two bootcamp classes at BOW this week. If you are a member, don't miss it. Last bootcamp was a big hit.
Expect more posts on BOW's blog and don't forget to sign up for the Free Weekly Swing Report.
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
While the market consolidated for the 12th straight day by week's end, I took profits in 3 swing trade positions (LABU, AMBA, EXAS) and entered EXAS, FCX and UGLD. That's active for such a tight ranging week. Holdovers ERX and TWLO continue to churn. See Full Results (2016 +45%)
Over on the BOW blog, a review of the $LABU trade and the $4800 Gold trade.
Enlightening article in the Huffington Post about BOW and Kunal's development as a trader, "Entourage" lifestyle, hard work and our mentoring/trading relationship.
Day trades
Very active intraday trading week, as earnings season gives us plenty of gapper opportunities. My favorite trade was this $FCX pre-market trade.
Motivation
The one handed concert pianist will make you feel like you aren't doing enough!
Entertainment
I could have watched John Oliver and Jerry Seinfeld talk and make comedy for hours.
Sports
As Ichiro approached his milestone 3,000th hit, ESPN's feature highlights his pursuit of mastery though habits and routine that easily apply to trading.
Future
I expect a market breakout or breakdown this week, and have potential trades for either eventuality.
I am teaching two bootcamp classes at BOW this week. If you are a member, don't miss it. Last bootcamp was a big hit.
Expect more posts on BOW's blog and don't forget to sign up for the Free Weekly Swing Report.
Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post!
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Friday, July 08, 2016
How to trade the news with this top secret foolproof plan
Looking back, Brexit was a big deal. Definitely the biggest deal since the banks collapsed in 2008. Think about it. The 5th largest economy in the world left the European Union. What the heck is Google, Amazon and Netflix going to do now?
The stock market guru's over on CNBC told us to pull our money out of the market right now. It's going to be financial armageddon.
Now that it is two weeks after Brexit let's take score of just how far we have tanked.
The S&P 500 is down a whopping . . .er . . .what . . .wait a minute. This can't be right. TC2000 tells me the market closed higher than it's pre-Brexit level. This must be a malfunction in the software. Let's head on over to stockcharts.com and get the right data. Nope, not working either. Let's head on over to . . . .
Ten more sites confirm that the market closed higher than it's pre-Brexit levels.
The sky is not falling.
This does not make sense. I read all the headlines, attended global economic seminar and a book on the European Union. This news was supposed to make the market tank!
Where did I go wrong, and what is the lesson from all this?
Okay, here it is (I am giving this to you for FREE).
A foolproof plan to effectively trade the news.
Wait for it . . .
Follow the price action to the news, and not the media/pundit overreaction to it.
If you are trading without an edge, let me know how I can help you. We'll talk about the BOW Swing Service(up 30%+ in a tough 2016 market) and free educational posts and videos, personal one-on-one mentoring or just shoot the breeze and get you pointed in the right direction.
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
The stock market guru's over on CNBC told us to pull our money out of the market right now. It's going to be financial armageddon.
Now that it is two weeks after Brexit let's take score of just how far we have tanked.
The S&P 500 is down a whopping . . .er . . .what . . .wait a minute. This can't be right. TC2000 tells me the market closed higher than it's pre-Brexit level. This must be a malfunction in the software. Let's head on over to stockcharts.com and get the right data. Nope, not working either. Let's head on over to . . . .
Ten more sites confirm that the market closed higher than it's pre-Brexit levels.
The sky is not falling.
This does not make sense. I read all the headlines, attended global economic seminar and a book on the European Union. This news was supposed to make the market tank!
Where did I go wrong, and what is the lesson from all this?
Okay, here it is (I am giving this to you for FREE).
A foolproof plan to effectively trade the news.
Wait for it . . .
Follow the price action to the news, and not the media/pundit overreaction to it.
If you are trading without an edge, let me know how I can help you. We'll talk about the BOW Swing Service(up 30%+ in a tough 2016 market) and free educational posts and videos, personal one-on-one mentoring or just shoot the breeze and get you pointed in the right direction.
Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post!
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Wednesday, July 06, 2016
The 7 Words You Must Tell Yourself Every Morning
I was once a gambler, but now a trader.
I once blew up a 200k account within a matter of weeks. Up until that point, I thought I was a trader. I opened up a trading account during the last stages of the roaring 90s internet boom. For a while things were great. So great that I almost left graduate school at 23 and did move into a high rise penthouse apartment foolishly thinking that after a few months I had made it as a trader.
Morning rituals are said to lead to success. Here was mine:
I'd get up 10 minutes before the market open. Maybe brush my teeth but definitely turn on CNBC. Grab a napkin or whatever else there was to write on and jot down whatever stocks they were talking about. That was the day's trading list and I'd jump in and out of stocks from these "well researched" lists. Depending on my gut feel, sometimes I'd be out in a few minutes, sometimes a few weeks.
Rule number one in my foolproof plan was to always hold when a stock tanked, because stocks always bounce back quickly no matter what! It wasn't until a little bit later that I'd find out this rule only applied in the wacky internet boom.
Some days I'd lose a little, some days a lot. Other days I would make insane percentage gains. At the time I didn't realize doubling up the trading stack in one week was not normal. In just a few months the minuscule 5K stake had turned to $200,000 and I was living large.
Until I wasn't.
In a few weeks it was all gone, along with my dreams. My dad, who has taught me more life lessons that I can count (like when he hit the 9 year old me with a baseball), told me something I'll never forget.
Go to a casino son because you are not investing, you are gambling.
There is a fine line between investing, trading and gambling. Investors search for value. Traders search for momentum. Gamblers hope to get lucky and search for the next fix.
I was once a gambler.
Over fifteen years later, my morning ritual has changed. I now get up at 4:30 am sharp. I meditate, exercise, read and listen to a little sports talk radio before I get my work day started. Once I am ready to start my research before the trading day begins, I say the following 7 words:
Trading without a strategic edge is gambling.
This sentence has become part of my morning ritual. A habit. It has kept me from making god knows how many bad trades.
Now the fix is not the trade, but the search for the edge before the trade. I no longer allow the emotions of a degenerate, namely fear and greed, to guide me. No more micro-managing and fear-of-missing-out. All because of 7 simple words.
If you are trading without an edge, let me know how I can help you. We'll talk about the BOW Swing Service (up 30%+ in a tough 2016 market) and free educational posts and videos, personal one-on-one mentoring or just shoot the breeze and get you pointed in the right direction.
Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post!
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
How most traders trade without an edge and don't even know it
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1. They trade setups without and edge.
2. They trade the setup in the wrong market.
Your trading "edge" gives you a reliable idea of how much you can expect to win with your setup over time. A well tested setup gives you a a predictable probability rate.
This seems counter to my article titled "the fallacy of backtesting".
It is not.
While I find backtesting in the way most do it a waste of time, it is not because the past is not reliable. It is because most do not backtest correctly.
Most backtests plug in the parameters of the setup and test over a given period of time. This type of unrigorious testing is worthless.
To properly test a setup you must account for how a setup reacts to different markets.
A common trading cliche is that 70 percent of a stock's move is related to the market and it's sector.
If gold is getting crushed odds are so will the gold related stock you are trading, regardless of the setup.
I wouldn't touch a breakdown short setup in a ramping market.
So you decide to test breakdown setups going back 7 years. I'm willing to bet your stats for this setup will be horrible, considering the market has gone up over that time frame. You'll think the setup is worthless and discard it.
However, now test for that setup when the market is below it's 50 day moving average and you might have something.
Never forget how important the market and sector is to the stock you are trading. As a swing trader, you are not just trading stocks and setups. You must be in tune to the market and sector you are trading.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Friday, June 03, 2016
Smart traders profit from the wisdom and delusions of the crowd
Crowds can be wise, but also manic and delusional. An astute trader learns to differentiate between these two extremes.
When there is diversity of opinion, the crowd is a force. The parts think independently, but private judgements combine to join as one powerfully wise collective.
Unfortunately this intellectual juggernaught will not last forever.
At some point diversity gives way to homogeny. Diverse thinkers conform to the will of the group. The smartest person takes the lead, which leads to less variance of opinion and acquisition of knowledge. The group no longer leads, but follows with irrational cognition as crowd psychology takes over the group.
The group is now set up for "popular delusions" and "madness of crowds".
Bubbles form that inevitably pop.
We have seen this play out for centuries. What startsas wise investing turns into a mania. Examples are too numerous to list, but here are a few:
- 1700s Tulip Mania: at one point tulips were more valuable than gold
- 1700s South Sea and Mississippi Company Bubbles: These companies were with more than 80 times all of the gold and silver in France.
- 1927 Florida Housing Bubble: A 2 bedroom condo in 1926 cost as much as a large luxury home in Miami today (4.5 million *without* adjusting for inflation)
- 2002 DotCome Crash: Nasdaq lost 78 percent of it's value in 18 months.
- 2009 Housing Bubble and Credit Crisis: Credit and housing mania leads to 50 percent loss in the market in 18 months.
In all of these instances, what started as smart, logical and prudent investing trends gave way to the insanity of the crowd.
Your job as a trader is to identify when wise crowd logic gives way to delusion.
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Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Only a fool accepts widely held trading maxims
Trading maxims that are treated as gospel, but nobody actually investigates their accuracy.
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Why do we implement them into our trading plans without investigating?
It is because we are sheep, and it's easier to be a follower.
Successful traders think like wolves and never follow the herd. In fact, they avoid the herd like it's the plague.
Last summer I realized I had spent my entire trading career as a sheep in wolves clothing when it came to risk management.
For years I had steadfastly held on to the belief that you must get 2:1 on every single trade. After getting stopped out of a number of trades that initially went my way I decided to investigate the 2:1 mantra.
My research was enlightening and totally changed my attitude towards risk management and probability trading. It showed that had I taken on 1.3:1 risk instead of 2:1in rangebound markets, I would have increased my profits and win rate.
I am no longer mislead by this false risk management "truth".
Let this be an important lesson. Never accept strategies that the herd adopts and investigate everything, no matter how nice it sounds.
Last summer I realized I had spent my entire trading career as a sheep in wolves clothing when it came to risk management.
For years I had steadfastly held on to the belief that you must get 2:1 on every single trade. After getting stopped out of a number of trades that initially went my way I decided to investigate the 2:1 mantra.
My research was enlightening and totally changed my attitude towards risk management and probability trading. It showed that had I taken on 1.3:1 risk instead of 2:1in rangebound markets, I would have increased my profits and win rate.
I am no longer mislead by this false risk management "truth".
Let this be an important lesson. Never accept strategies that the herd adopts and investigate everything, no matter how nice it sounds.
Trading is as much art as science. Develop creativity and think outside the box. pic.twitter.com/hrtjfhSqFv— Paul J. Singh (@PaulJSingh) May 7, 2016
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Thursday, April 28, 2016
It's the small wins that hurt
This is what holds many traders back.
The small wins.
Yet we love to take those small wins, and avoid small meaningless losses like the plague.
We are afraid of losses. It doesn't matter it it is big or small, that L is scary.
It's all about the fear of the loss.
Here is the rub: the fear of the loss is always worse than the loss itself.
Losses don't hurt as bad as you think.
Remember what it was like getting a shot when you were 10 years old? That drive to the doctor was terrifying. But then you turn your head, feel that little jab, and it's over and you wonder what you were so scared about.
Trading losses are the same.
Not only are losses not so bad, but often it means you are trading correctly.
I embrace small losses.
The reason is small losses combined with big wins means you are doing something right. On the other hand, small wins mean you are doing something wrong.
It's the small wins that hurt.
The small wins.
Yet we love to take those small wins, and avoid small meaningless losses like the plague.
We are afraid of losses. It doesn't matter it it is big or small, that L is scary.
It's all about the fear of the loss.
Here is the rub: the fear of the loss is always worse than the loss itself.
Losses don't hurt as bad as you think.
Remember what it was like getting a shot when you were 10 years old? That drive to the doctor was terrifying. But then you turn your head, feel that little jab, and it's over and you wonder what you were so scared about.
Trading losses are the same.
Not only are losses not so bad, but often it means you are trading correctly.
I embrace small losses.
The reason is small losses combined with big wins means you are doing something right. On the other hand, small wins mean you are doing something wrong.
It's the small wins that hurt.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Saturday, April 16, 2016
Don't choose unhappiness over uncertainty
It's a flaw in our brilliant minds and one that afflicts most traders. It's a big reason why 90 percent of traders fail.
I'm watching one of my students trade a few weeks ago and he keeps taking these ridiculously small wins. Over and over again, he takes these small .3R gains only to watch the stock run without him. I don't say a word and just watch.
He is in agony.
I mean it looks like he has literally been slapped in the face. Finally I ask him why he keeps taking these small losses.
His response is priceless (actually it's costly):
I don't know what is going to happen so I'm protecting my profit.
And there you have it.
We are wired to choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
This novice trader knows he can't succeed continually taking these small wins since two regular size losses will wipe them all out. That's why he's unhappy about it. Yet he can't control himself.
He's inflicted with the uncertainty disease, feeling more discomfort with uncertainty than unhappiness.
Fight your programming and embrace uncertainty.
It's the only way you succeed.
Uncertainty is the way.
I'm watching one of my students trade a few weeks ago and he keeps taking these ridiculously small wins. Over and over again, he takes these small .3R gains only to watch the stock run without him. I don't say a word and just watch.
He is in agony.
I mean it looks like he has literally been slapped in the face. Finally I ask him why he keeps taking these small losses.
His response is priceless (actually it's costly):
I don't know what is going to happen so I'm protecting my profit.
And there you have it.
We are wired to choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
This novice trader knows he can't succeed continually taking these small wins since two regular size losses will wipe them all out. That's why he's unhappy about it. Yet he can't control himself.
He's inflicted with the uncertainty disease, feeling more discomfort with uncertainty than unhappiness.
Fight your programming and embrace uncertainty.
It's the only way you succeed.
Uncertainty is the way.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com
Monday, April 04, 2016
Subtract Your Way To Trading Success
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| Swing Trading Master |
So you know about stochastics . . . that's great. Extreme conditions lead to extreme profits.
So you trading using Fibonacci retracements . . . awesome. I know a guy who makes a killing off this mysterious phenomena.
So you know about trading options . . . brilliant. There are some rich options traders.
So you know how to trade divergences . . . excellent. In 2008 this style was a personal gold mine.
So you know how to trade multiple timeframes . . . magnificent. My buddy kills it by looking at three different time frame charts.
So you know how to use Level 2 . . .superb. Lots of money can be made gaming the algos.
So you know how to trade breakouts using options when stochastics are oversold, while analyzing Fibonacci retracement levels when there is a divergence, everything aligns on multiple timeframes and level 2 shows support.
WTF?
You know a lot of things, but you don't know anything.
Master a few things by subtracting your way to success.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Define yourself as a trader
We can choose to define ourselves as traders by the trades we take.
This is not about the money we make.
Rather it's the place within the setup that we enter.
Do you require more confirmation, content to give up some gain in exchange for safety?
Or do you jump in early, aggressively jumping in pre-breakout in order to maximize every inch of the trade?
One is not better than the other.
However, you must know which type of trader you are and adjust your trading style, risk management and expectations accordingly.
Define yourself as a trader.
This is not about the money we make.
Rather it's the place within the setup that we enter.
Do you require more confirmation, content to give up some gain in exchange for safety?
Or do you jump in early, aggressively jumping in pre-breakout in order to maximize every inch of the trade?
One is not better than the other.
However, you must know which type of trader you are and adjust your trading style, risk management and expectations accordingly.
Define yourself as a trader.
Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post!
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
Prepare for the worst and the worst Martin Shkeli joke you ever heard
 |
| Martin: I have a horrible migraine. Prison guard: A bottle of Advil is $750,000 |
It's easy to lose sight of the dangers of trading when things are going well. A few good trades and you are invincible.
But it only takes one bad trade to wipe all the profit away.
Anybody remember KBIO?
A novice trader shorted the $2 stock. The next day it gapped up eight hundred percent. His account went from plus $36,000 to -$107,000 in one night.
In twenty-four hours his life changed to the point of cowardly begging for money on social media.
He should have planned like a stoic and practiced premeditatio malorum, translated as a premeditation of evils.
In other words, prepare for the worst.
If the above mentioned KBIO trader had planned like a stoic, he probably would not have taken that trade or he'd have at least position sized in a way that protected his account.
I know what you are thinking: that's quite the negative attitude.
Living as a stoic does not mean you are a negative person.
Think positively but prepare for the worst while planning for success.
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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.
Saturday, March 19, 2016
It starts with one: habits, excellence and 112 push-ups
Aristotle said excellence is not an act, but a habit.
What he was telling us is that excellence does not begin fully formed, but builds over time through habit. Excellence does not start excellent.
Dream big, but start small.
With one.
At the beginning of the year I told a skeptical friend that by year end I would do 300 pushups without stopping.
He shook his head and said "nope", so I decided to prove him wrong.
As a symbol and to get me started on a routine, I did one pushup (one armed Rocky style).
I woke up on day two and did 10.
I decided I would add only 1 or 2 everyday the second I woke up.
As of March 18th I am currently at 112 pushups and a habit has formed.
This new habit is leading me to my goal of excellence.
Aristotle would be proud.
Leave a comment if you can see how this related to trading.
What he was telling us is that excellence does not begin fully formed, but builds over time through habit. Excellence does not start excellent.
Dream big, but start small.
With one.
At the beginning of the year I told a skeptical friend that by year end I would do 300 pushups without stopping.
He shook his head and said "nope", so I decided to prove him wrong.
As a symbol and to get me started on a routine, I did one pushup (one armed Rocky style).
I woke up on day two and did 10.
I decided I would add only 1 or 2 everyday the second I woke up.
As of March 18th I am currently at 112 pushups and a habit has formed.
This new habit is leading me to my goal of excellence.
Aristotle would be proud.
Leave a comment if you can see how this related to trading.
Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post!
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
The Emotional Dreams of a Small Account Trader and Paul's Time Machine
Yesterday I asked for blog post ideas for an epic post I plan to write on Bulls on Wall Street. There were a lot of great ideas, but two emails received from small account holders sealed the deal for me. One was a time machine, taking me back to a white Twin Cities winter in 2005.
Here is the time machine:
In the beginning I had the same feelings, frustrations and anxieties as Brian. I remember when making a fantastic 130 percent gain over a short period only netted me $12,000. I truly felt that I was climbing an impossible mountain, when in trading reality I should have been on cloud nine for trading so fantastically.
What I needed was a mind shift and strategy adjustment, which I was lucky enough to develop on my own. Fortunately you don't have to.
I am writing an epic post detailing exactly how I built my small account. It should be ready in a week and will be the go to resource for all small account traders. Keep an eye out for it on Bullsonwallstreet.com.
In the meantime, in the comments below or by email, send me the answer to this question if you are a small account trader:
How can I help you?
Here is the time machine:
I love trading and I know I have what it takes. Like you said in the past, I want to use trading to become free. But I can't take the wait. I have a small account, a family, job and debts. I trade everyday and feel like I'm going nowhere even after a 30 percent gain. If only I had more money. Sometimes I feel defeated but listening to your story gives me hope. Please help me and write about how you built your small account.
In the beginning I had the same feelings, frustrations and anxieties as Brian. I remember when making a fantastic 130 percent gain over a short period only netted me $12,000. I truly felt that I was climbing an impossible mountain, when in trading reality I should have been on cloud nine for trading so fantastically.
What I needed was a mind shift and strategy adjustment, which I was lucky enough to develop on my own. Fortunately you don't have to.
I am writing an epic post detailing exactly how I built my small account. It should be ready in a week and will be the go to resource for all small account traders. Keep an eye out for it on Bullsonwallstreet.com.
In the meantime, in the comments below or by email, send me the answer to this question if you are a small account trader:
How can I help you?
Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post!
If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.
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