Showing posts with label philosophy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label philosophy. Show all posts

Monday, November 07, 2016

Bad Information Leads To Bad Trades

Most of the trading content you read on social media is garbage. Sure some blogs are good, but most are bad. Yes some tweets are mind-bending, but most are worthless.

You know this and have an inkling of what is good and what is garbage. The problem is it all goes in your head, stays there and mucks with your emotions.

Pretty soon you are no longer patiently waiting for setups. All that bad information that you can not unlearn mucks with your analysis and your emotions, and a bad trade is made.

Bad information leads to bad trades.

Create process that lead to good information. Good information pays it forward to good trades.




If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com


Wednesday, August 10, 2016

The Shocking Way That Winning Trades Blow Up Trading Accounts

You may have just crushed it with your biggest winning trade of the year, but you still do not know how to trade.

That rush your feeling means it was a bad trade.  Good trades are not exciting. If this trade was your biggest win of the year, you probably committed a cardinal trading sin.

A few big wins doesn't make you a big elephant
Common big win trading mistakes (and their mental trigger) include:
  1. Taking on too much risk (greed).
  2. Gambling by holding through earnings (FOMO-fear).
  3. Traded too big for your account size (greed).
  4. Piggybacking somebody else's trade without understanding the trade (fear and greed). 
There are many more trading leaks but these are the ones I see my students make over and over again.

There's a pattern at work here that ultimately leads you to blow up your account. Trust me I know because I have done it twice (see my story and listen to there interviews here and here).

The patterns goes a little something like this.

Fledgling trader (actually I also see way too many seasoned pros do this too) gets an idea from a member of the twitterati. Her rules allow here to risk up to 1 percent of her account, but this trade looks too good and she envisions the big gain. She uses all of her 25K account for this one trade and ends up risking 10%.

Earnings are three days away and again she imagines blow out earnings. While her rules tell her to get out of the trade before earnings, she fears missing out and gambles the entire position.

The trade worked and her account is now at 33K. She does this 10 more times and after a wild ride she's doubled up to 50K.

You think you are the shit. Best damn trader this side of Wall Street.

Thoughts of quitting your job fill your head. The two week notice is ready and your playlist has "take this job and shove it" on loop.

As any degenerate gambler knows, eventually your luck will run out.

You WILL blow up your account.

You do not know how to trade.

Before that happens get your stuff together and learn.

I'm here to help.



If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Friday, July 08, 2016

How to trade the news with this top secret foolproof plan

Looking back, Brexit was a big deal. Definitely the biggest deal since the banks collapsed in 2008. Think about it. The 5th largest economy in the world left the European Union. What the heck is Google, Amazon and Netflix going to do now?

The stock market guru's over on CNBC told us to pull our money out of the market right now. It's going to be financial armageddon.

Now that it is two weeks after Brexit let's take score of just how far we have tanked.

The S&P 500 is down a whopping . . .er . . .what . . .wait a minute. This can't be right. TC2000 tells me the market closed higher than it's pre-Brexit level. This must be a malfunction in the software. Let's head on over to stockcharts.com and get the right data. Nope, not working either. Let's head on over to . . . .

Ten more sites confirm that the market closed higher than it's pre-Brexit levels.

The sky is not falling.

This does not make sense. I read all the headlines, attended global economic seminar and a book on the European Union. This news was supposed to make the market tank!

Where did I go wrong, and what is the lesson from all this?

Okay, here it is (I am giving this to you for FREE).

A foolproof plan to effectively trade the news.

Wait for it . . .

Follow the price action to the news, and not the media/pundit overreaction to it.

If you are trading without an edge, let me know how I can help you. We'll talk about the BOW Swing Service(up 30%+ in a tough 2016 market) and free educational posts and videos, personal one-on-one mentoring or just shoot the breeze and get you pointed in the right direction.



If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Wednesday, July 06, 2016

The 7 Words You Must Tell Yourself Every Morning

I was once a gambler, but now a trader.

I once blew up a 200k account within a matter of weeks. Up until that point, I thought I was a trader. I opened up a trading account during the last stages of the roaring 90s internet boom. For a while things were great. So great that I almost left graduate school at 23 and did move into a high rise penthouse apartment foolishly thinking that after a few months I had made it as a trader.

Morning rituals are said to lead to success. Here was mine:

I'd get up 10 minutes before the market open. Maybe brush my teeth but definitely turn on CNBC. Grab a napkin or whatever else there was to write on and jot down whatever stocks they were talking about. That was the day's trading list and I'd jump in and out of stocks from these "well researched" lists. Depending on my gut feel, sometimes I'd be out in a few minutes, sometimes a few weeks.

Rule number one in my foolproof plan was to always hold when a stock tanked, because stocks always bounce back quickly no matter what! It wasn't until a little bit later that I'd find out this rule only applied in the wacky internet boom.

Some days I'd lose a little, some days a lot. Other days I would make insane percentage gains. At the time I didn't realize doubling up the trading stack in one week was not normal. In just a few months the minuscule 5K stake had turned to $200,000 and I was living large.

Until I wasn't.

In a few weeks it was all gone, along with my dreams. My dad, who has taught me more life lessons that I can count (like when he hit the 9 year old me with a baseball), told me something I'll never forget.

Go to a casino son because you are not investing, you are gambling.

There is a fine line between investing, trading and gambling. Investors search for value. Traders search for momentum. Gamblers hope to get lucky and search for the next fix.

I was once a gambler.

Over fifteen years later, my morning ritual has changed. I now get up at 4:30 am sharp. I meditate, exercise, read and listen to a little sports talk radio before I get my work day started. Once I am ready to start my research before the trading day begins, I say the following 7 words:

Trading without a strategic edge is gambling.

This sentence has become part of my morning ritual. A habit. It has kept me from making god knows how many bad trades.

Now the fix is not the trade, but the search for the edge before the trade. I no longer allow the emotions of a degenerate, namely fear and greed, to guide me. No more micro-managing and fear-of-missing-out. All because of 7 simple words.

If you are trading without an edge, let me know how I can help you. We'll talk about the BOW Swing Service (up 30%+ in a tough 2016 market) and free educational posts and videos, personal one-on-one mentoring or just shoot the breeze and get you pointed in the right direction.



If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

How most traders trade without an edge and don't even know it


There are two mistakes most traders make when building a basket of trading setups.

1. They trade setups without and edge.
2. They trade the setup in the wrong market.

Your trading "edge" gives you a reliable idea of how much you can expect to win with your setup over time. A well tested setup gives you a a predictable probability rate.

This seems counter to my article titled "the fallacy of backtesting".

It is not.

While I find backtesting in the way most do it a waste of time, it is not because the past is not reliable. It is because most do not backtest correctly.

Most backtests plug in the parameters of the setup and test over a given period of time. This type of unrigorious testing is worthless.

To properly test a setup you must account for how a setup reacts to different markets.

A common trading cliche is that 70 percent of a stock's move is related to the market and it's sector.

If  gold is getting crushed odds are so will the gold related stock you are trading, regardless of the setup.

I wouldn't touch a breakdown short setup in a ramping market.

So you decide to test breakdown setups going back 7 years. I'm willing to bet your stats for this setup will be horrible, considering the market has gone up over that time frame. You'll think the setup is worthless and discard it.

However, now test for that setup when the market is below it's 50 day moving average and you might have something.

Never forget how important the market and sector is to the stock you are trading. As a swing trader, you are not just trading stocks and setups. You must be in tune to the market and sector you are trading.



If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Friday, June 03, 2016

Smart traders profit from the wisdom and delusions of the crowd


Crowds can be wise, but also manic and delusional. An astute trader learns to differentiate between these two extremes.

When there is diversity of opinion, the crowd is a force. The parts think independently, but private judgements combine to join as one powerfully wise collective.

Unfortunately this intellectual juggernaught will not last forever.

At some point diversity gives way to homogeny. Diverse thinkers conform to the will of the group. The smartest person takes the lead, which leads to less variance of opinion and acquisition of knowledge. The group no longer leads, but follows with irrational cognition as crowd psychology takes over the group.

The group is now set up for "popular delusions" and "madness of crowds".

Bubbles form that inevitably pop.

We have seen this play out for centuries. What startsas wise investing turns into a mania. Examples are too numerous to list, but here are a few:


  • 1700s Tulip Mania: at one point tulips were more valuable than gold
  • 1700s South Sea and Mississippi Company Bubbles: These companies were with more than 80 times all of the gold and silver in France.
  • 1927 Florida Housing Bubble: A 2 bedroom condo in 1926 cost as much as a large luxury home in Miami today (4.5 million *without* adjusting for inflation)
  • 2002 DotCome Crash: Nasdaq lost 78 percent of it's value in 18 months.
  • 2009 Housing Bubble and Credit Crisis: Credit and housing mania leads to 50 percent loss in the market in 18 months.
In all of these instances, what started as smart, logical and prudent investing trends gave way to the insanity of the crowd.

Your job as a trader is to identify when wise crowd logic gives way to delusion.




If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Thursday, April 28, 2016

It's the small wins that hurt

This is what holds many traders back.

The small wins.

Yet we love to take those small wins, and avoid small meaningless losses like the plague.

We are afraid of losses. It doesn't matter it it is big or small, that L is scary.

It's all about the fear of the loss.

Here is the rub: the fear of the loss is always worse than the loss itself.

Losses don't hurt as bad as you think.

Remember what it was like getting a shot when you were 10 years old? That drive to the doctor was terrifying. But then you turn your head, feel that little jab, and it's over and you wonder what you were so scared about.

Trading losses are the same.

Not only are losses not so bad, but often it means you are trading correctly.

I embrace small losses.

The reason is small losses combined with big wins means you are doing something right. On the other hand, small wins mean you are doing something wrong.

It's the small wins that hurt.




If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Saturday, April 16, 2016

Don't choose unhappiness over uncertainty

It's a flaw in our brilliant minds and one that afflicts most traders. It's a big reason why 90 percent of traders fail.

I'm watching one of my students trade a few weeks ago and he keeps taking these ridiculously small wins. Over and over again, he takes these small .3R gains only to watch the stock run without him. I don't say a word and just watch.

He is in agony.

I mean it looks like he has literally been slapped in the face. Finally I ask him why he keeps taking these small losses.

His response is priceless (actually it's costly):

I don't know what is going to happen so I'm protecting my profit.

And there you have it.

We are wired to choose unhappiness over uncertainty.

This novice trader knows he can't succeed continually taking these small wins since two regular size losses will wipe them all out. That's why he's unhappy about it. Yet he can't control himself.

He's inflicted with the uncertainty disease, feeling more discomfort with uncertainty than unhappiness.

Fight your programming and embrace uncertainty.

It's the only way you succeed.

Uncertainty is the way.





If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com

Monday, April 04, 2016

Subtract Your Way To Trading Success

Swing Trading Master
So you know about swing trading breakouts . . . fantastic. You can make a lot of money trading those.

So you know about stochastics . . . that's great. Extreme conditions lead to extreme profits.

So you trading using Fibonacci retracements . . . awesome. I know a guy who makes a killing off this mysterious phenomena.

So you know about trading options . . . brilliant. There are some rich options traders.

So you know how to trade divergences . . . excellent. In 2008 this style was a personal gold mine.

So you know how to trade multiple timeframes . . . magnificent. My buddy kills it by looking at three different time frame charts.

So you know how to use Level 2 . . .superb. Lots of money can be made gaming the algos.

So you know how to trade breakouts using options when stochastics are oversold, while analyzing Fibonacci retracement levels when there is a divergence, everything aligns on multiple timeframes and level 2 shows support.

WTF?

You know a lot of things, but you don't know anything.

Master a few things by subtracting your way to success.




If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Define yourself as a trader

We can choose to define ourselves as traders by the trades we take.

This is not about the money we make.

Rather it's the place within the setup that we enter.

Do you require more confirmation, content to give up some gain in exchange for safety?

Or do you jump in early, aggressively jumping in pre-breakout in order to maximize every inch of the trade?

One is not better than the other.

However, you must know which type of trader you are and adjust your trading style, risk management and expectations accordingly.

Define yourself as a trader.



If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Prepare for the worst and the worst Martin Shkeli joke you ever heard

Martin: I have a horrible migraine. Prison guard: A bottle of Advil is $750,000
It's easy to lose sight of the dangers of trading when things are going well. A few good trades and you are invincible.

But it only takes one bad trade to wipe all the profit away.

Anybody remember KBIO?

A novice trader shorted the $2 stock. The next day it gapped up eight hundred percent. His account went from plus $36,000 to -$107,000 in one night. 

In twenty-four hours his life changed to the point of cowardly begging for money on social media.

He should have planned like a stoic and practiced premeditatio malorum, translated as a premeditation of evils.

In other words, prepare for the worst.

If the above mentioned KBIO trader had planned like a stoic, he probably would not have taken that trade or he'd have at least position sized in a way that protected his account. 

I know what you are thinking: that's quite the negative attitude. 

Living as a stoic does not mean you are a negative person.

Think positively but prepare for the worst while planning for success.



If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com. 

Saturday, March 19, 2016

It starts with one: habits, excellence and 112 push-ups

Aristotle said excellence is not an act, but a habit.

What he was telling us is that excellence does not begin fully formed, but builds over time through habit. Excellence does not start excellent.

Dream big, but start small.

With one.

At the beginning of the year I told a skeptical friend that by year end I would do 300 pushups without stopping.

He shook his head and said "nope", so I decided to prove him wrong.

As a symbol and to get me started on a routine, I did one pushup (one armed Rocky style).

I woke up on day two and did 10.

I decided I would add only 1 or 2 everyday the second I woke up.

As of March 18th I am currently at 112 pushups and a habit has formed.

This new habit is leading me to my goal of excellence.

Aristotle would be proud.

Leave a comment if you can see how this related to trading.




If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.

Monday, March 14, 2016

The Fallacy of Backtesting and Adapting to Current Market Conditions

I recently engaged in an interesting chat with a novice trader this weekend. It got me thinking about the fallacy of backtesting and why I don't rely on past statistics. 

You heard me correctly. My take on backtesting is controversial and puts me in the minority. Some have called me an idiot for this view and I don't mind at all. The majority is often wrong, and I've made a career out of going against the grain. 

Here's the conversation that illustrates my point.

Paul, how are you doing trading breakout-pullbacks?

I haven't traded any this year.

Why not? A few years ago you made a killing off that setup.

That was a few years ago.

Yeah, but I backtested the past 10 years and they have a 58 percent win rate and average gain over 7 percent on winners.

Nice stats but they don't apply to this market.

Stats don't lie Paul.

Have you made any money this year trading breakout-pullbacks?

No.

The take away from this chat is that you need to understand the current market you are trading. Backtesting can give you a general idea of how reliable a setup is, but there is much more to trading a setup. 

You can not test for every variable and different market reacts differently to specific setups. A successful swing trader must understand the current market and adapt accordingly.

Forget about backtesting, understand the current market conditions, and trade right setup for the right market.



If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Trading Meditation: Uncertainty Is The Way

Certainty is a problem for traders.

They want the answer to the question, "What will the market do".

I do not know.

Does that make me an idiot? 

No, it makes me smart.

I know that I do not know, and I accept it. I know that I am not in control, only the market is.

Because I know this, I trade the right way.

Certainty causes traders to hold on to bad positions, because they know they are right. It causes them to throw out stops and take big losses.

I know that I am wrong, a lot. 

For this reason, I cut losers and keep losses small.

I know that I do not know.




If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up at BullsonWallStreet.com.

Sunday, March 06, 2016

Trading Meditation: Taking Small Losses Is Not So Bad


It hurt bad, yet it wasn't so bad.

Once when I was 9 years old my dad hit me with 10 straight pitches in a row.

This was after I kept jumping out of the batters box while Pablo fired off 3 strikes right down the middle of the plate. Pablo was a giant of a nine year old and threw pitches that had to be shot out of a cannon. I was scared every time he looked at me and wound up, so I'd start moving away from the plate before the ball even left his hand.

I could sense that my old man was embarrassed.

After the game, there was silence for most of the walk home. Before we got into the house, he told me "it's not so bad".

Huh?

Really, it is not so bad. I'll show you tomorrow.

The next morning Dad took me into the backyard, put a bat in my hand and proceeded to hit me with 10 straight pitches.

I cried.

I told him he was a crazy old Indian that didn't know anything about baseball.

Dad laughed, waited for 10 minutes and let me settle down before we went back into the house. Then he asked me how bad it hurt.

Not so bad.





If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up for a 14 day free trial at BullsonWallStreet.com.




Friday, March 04, 2016

Trading Meditation: The Early Bird Gets The Profits


Hesitation gets you nowhere. It is linked to fear and fear guides traders to the poor house.

But Paul, I want confirmation.

No, you are just afraid. So you wait. For the safety of the move.

Seeing the stock move feels safe. So you act. And now you lose.

That is because once the move comes, once you feel safe, the trade is almost over. You enter at the worst time.

You are in "no man's land" caught in between support and resistance levels.

You'll either make a small profit, or take a big loss. Or a lot of small losses. All of these are negative outcomes in this case because the big wins will rarely come, since you gave up so much waiting for confirmation.

Do not hesitate. Previous encounters with the pattern have already confirmed you have an edge. Enter at the exact moment pattern recognition give you the signal.

Be decisive.

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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up for a 14 day free trial at BullsonWallStreet.com.




Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Trading Meditation: Be The Wolf, Not A Sheep


If every trader is doing the same thing, how does anybody make money?

Trading is a zero sum game. Somebody wins, somebody loses. And the split is not 50/50.

It is more like 10/90. For those who are making significant percentage gains, it's more like 5/95.

To the few victors goes most of the spoils.

You do not want to be the "ninety-five".

You want to be the "five".

Do not follow the crowd. That's where fear and greed reign supreme. That's where the sheep graze. It's where panic and euphoria take control.

The crowd is the 95 that lose.

Think differently. Always ask yourself what everybody else is doing. Then figure out how to game the group.

Be the wolf, not the sheep.

Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post!

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If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up for a 14 day free trial at BullsonWallStreet.com.


Monday, February 29, 2016

Trading Meditation: How to tell if it's intuition or guessing

Intuition is a swing trader's best friend. When we intuit it seems as though there is no conscious reasoning. To the outsider it seems like guessing.

In reality it is a function of the mind that glimpses greater knowledge through experience and pattern recognition.

Traders often confuse intuition with guessing. Some call a guess that results in a successful trade intuition. This type of results oriented analysis is fatal.

Intuition is not a gamble. It is based on matching patterns that lead to an edge in probability.

So how do you tell if your "gut" feel is intuition or guessing? By definition, there is no objective measure to identify intuition since the process is unknown to the thinker.

I pay attention to my base emotions, which often manifest physically. If I feel my heart rate increase or my stress levels intensify I know I am guessing. I am ready to get my gamble on. I trust my intuition if I feel calm and confident, locked in the "zone".

It comes down to knowing yourself.

Great traders know when to trust their gut.

Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post! 

If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up for a 14 day free trial at BullsonWallStreet.com.




Friday, February 19, 2016

Trading secret for those unwilling to understand that they can not predict the future


Traders know less about the future than they think they do. And if the trader knows she does not know, she thinks someone else does.

It's why you hang onto every word of woefully inaccurate CNBC pundits. It's why you love and hate Cramer. It's why you follow 3654 members of the Twitterati.

Sadly, it's why you risk too much. It's why you put all of our eggs in one basket. It's why you won't get rid of that losing position. It's why you do not cut your losses. You don't like the idea that you do not know what will happen. 

The one percenter understands. She knows that she does not know. Rather than trying to predict, she reacts. She understand probability. She understands risk.

I am the exception. That is why I have a trading service on Bullsonwallstreet.com. I have a crystal ball.

Okay, so I can not predict the future. However I still make money trading stocks because I know that I do not know.

Subscribe to The Market Speculator by Email and never miss a post! 

If you would like to learn more about how I trade, receive my nightly focus list with market analysis, setups and trade alerts, sign up for a 14 day free trial at BullsonWallStreet.com.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Why Would I Be Interested in What I Can Already Do?

Over the years I have learned to appreciate those who do things counter to my own "way" or style. A few years ago I was visiting with an successful artist friend who draws heroes in a dark, gothic style (think Batman Begins versus the old campy Batman TV shows of the '60s). We went to an art gallery, and to my surprise the only thing he would look at were Japanese inspired pieces that were cartoonish (for those in the know--Manga).

I asked him why he wasn't looking at the dark stuff. His response:

Why would I be interested in what I can already do? If you want to grow, learn to appreciate other ways of life, styles, cultures and values.

I've learned to incorporate this type of thinking into my own mental framework. While I am an amalgam of chart, pattern and technical trader, you'll never see me put down a "fundamentalist" or value investor. In fact, these days I read more blogs on fundamentals than anything else. I appreciate what these guys do, even though I probably will never do it myself.

Bill Rempel, who authors The Rempel Report, recently made some comments after my gold post. He is a mechanical trader--a style I appreciate but could never practice. Still, I enjoyed the following post:

Rotational Portfolio Is Overweight Commodities