Trade Review: HOC

Before posting my review of the HOC trade, I'd like to answer a question posed to me after the latest "today's trades" post. The question:

You seem to hold on to positions for only a few days even though it may seem as though the position could move higher. why is that?

The person who asked this question is quite perceptive. While I've been on a tear of late, in terms of win rate and profits, I am still frustrated because I know I should be making more money. I have been exiting trades way too early, bagging profits when I probably should stay in a little longer.

The HOC trade is a good example. When I entered the trade, at $57.94, I posted a target of $62. While I didn't say it, that target was only for partial profits. My strategy was to then move my stop up and see if the stock could breakout over new highs, which I think is likely. Using this strategy, if it breaks out, I continue to make money. If it doesn't, that's fine. I break even on the remaining shares and still have my initial profit.

Instead, I was short sighted, looked at the nice looking profit that I would gain on all of the shares, and let greed and fear based emotions get the best of me. Looking at the chart below, you will see that the stochastic level has not given a sell signal. At the least I should have stayed in the trade with half the original position.

Note that I believe I made a mistake, even if the stock tanks tomorrow. It's about doing the right thing, not stroking the ego from one trade. If I trade properly, over time what should happen will happen more frequently than not.

Setup:
Low volume pullback to support of a trending stock in a hot sector. Early entry. The safe play would have been to enter on a confirmation move a day later. However, the stock was acting perfectly and a low risk stop was in place, making for a nice reward to risk ratio.

Results:
Entered at $57.94
Exit at $60.76
$1410 gain (+4.9%)
Hold time 2 days

Final Analysis:
Great entry off of a great setup. However, I should have stuck to the plan and taken partial, rather than full, profits. This would have given me the chance to catch a big move. The fact that volume was acting nicely and stochastics are not oversold make the timing of the exit awful. I should have held on longer.

What to Work On:
A. Sticking with the plan at entry
B. Psychological aspects of profit taking.
C. Exits: partial vs full profits.
D. Exits: pay attention to stochastic indicator

What to Continue:
A. The "low volume pullback to support of momentum stocks" setup
B. Early entries on good setups with good reward to risk

Today's Trades: EWZ, FCEL, GES, HOC, SBGI, PDE

I took profits from my 500 share position in HOC at $60.76 (entry at $57.94) for a $1410 gain (+4.9%).

I sold shares of PDE at $31.73 (entry at $30.28) for a $725 gain (+4.8%).

I sold 500 shares of SBGI at $16.18 (entry at $15.23) for a $475 gain (+6.2%).

I sold 300 shares of GES at $42.13 (entry at $40.85) for a $384 gain (+3.1%).

I was stopped out of FCEL for no gain or loss. I had moved my stop to break even level once it moved up yesterday.

I bought 600 shares of EWZ at $50.43. The stock has broke out of a big base at $50, which has acted as resistance. I hope to annotate a chart tonight, but take a look at the move out of the base on the chart below.

I am holding EWZ, HES, TZOO and HOKU. I plan to go over each of today's exits today or tomorrow.

Today's Trades and A Question About how I Spotted PDE

In reference to the PDE setup, Rahul asked "Indeed a good trade. Could you tell how it came on your radar."

Sure Rahul,

Two weekends ago, I performed a sector screen, as I do every weekend. Energy was one of the stronger sectors that I identified, but I felt that it was a bit extended. I went through about 300 energy charts and identified 30 pullback candidates. PDE was one of those, and once it hit my target, I entered.

Today's Trades:
Just as with PDE, two more stocks from my watchlist pulled back to good entry levels after strong breakouts.

I bought 600 shares of FCEL at $7.89. The stock has handled support, both the breakout point and the 200 day moving average, by printing a bullish engulfing candle. I expect the stock to challenge the recent high.

I bought 500 shares of HOC at $57.94. The stock has pulled back to supprt on diminishing volume. I have placed a loose stop at $55.90, under the 50 day moving average. The target is $62, which would mark a test of old highs.